{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1233cedc-6d0c-4c31-ab96-6d725501a639", "symbol": "000995", "name": "Gansu Huangtai Wine-Marketing Industry Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.679, "architecture_energy": 42.8, "architecture_maturity": 68.991, "architecture_confidence": 63.061, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.16, "rotation_up": 25.17, "upward_expansion": 18.03, "deceleration": 66.76, "rotation_down": 47.67, "downward_expansion": 70.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.181333, 10.113273, 11.120333, 11.985462 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 10.71, "trend_reference": 12.966667, "distance_from_trend": -0.174036, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.405, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.201044, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.34393, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.327684, "excess_performance": -0.335083, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.174036, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062199, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.201044, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.209091, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.223439, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033711, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.327684, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.071762, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 69158007, "relative_activity": 1.03896, "balance": 1.071762, "dry_up": 1.084357, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.126625, "annualized_volatility": 0.498443, "from_high_reference": -0.494811, "from_low_reference": 0.215664 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.966667, "fair_value_reference": 13.405, "structural_low": 8.81, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.021767, "positive_rate": 0.64, "directional_follow_through": 0.36, "median_excess_return": 0.005839, "regime_survival": 0.68, "best_return": 0.53125, "worst_return": -0.314186, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.068124, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.025136, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.662338, "worst_return": -0.438281, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.157979, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.19508, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.561688, "worst_return": -0.342969, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.091353, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.048376, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.051724, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.065538, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.067545, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-06", 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13.238667, "fair_value": 13.529615, "relative_strength": -29.517061, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.750089, "energy": 85.274606, "activity_lines": [ 9.834, 10.516727, 11.766286, 12.558495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.22, "volume": 64205602, "typical_volume": 70321305.75, "trend": 13.106667, "fair_value": 13.480897, "relative_strength": -32.056139, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.067809, "energy": 79.048246, "activity_lines": [ 9.616, 10.131273, 11.43381, 12.299226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.56, "volume": 94472952, "typical_volume": 71146013.3, "trend": 13.026667, "fair_value": 13.441603, "relative_strength": -20.213836, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.653417, "energy": 53.652877, "activity_lines": [ 9.904, 10.086182, 11.25819, 12.134925 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.71, "volume": 69158007, "typical_volume": 66564654.65, "trend": 12.966667, "fair_value": 13.405, "relative_strength": -22.34393, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.678531, "energy": 42.799701, "activity_lines": [ 10.181333, 10.113273, 11.120333, 11.985462 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }