{ "ticker": { "uuid": "123ee3ae-4e9b-475c-aa42-251c38c7696a", "symbol": "AMC", "name": "Asia Metal Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 92.695, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 58.69, "architecture_energy": 40.502, "architecture_maturity": 36.891, "architecture_confidence": 54.508, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.43, "rotation_up": 62.18, "upward_expansion": 63.39, "deceleration": 70.7, "rotation_down": 11.8, "downward_expansion": 13.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.258667, 2.197455, 2.227143, 2.22192 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 2.42, "trend_reference": 2.179481, "distance_from_trend": 0.110356, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.418136, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.000771, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.693673, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.256538, "excess_performance": 0.064213, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.110356, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035596, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.000771, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070251, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.006937, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087136, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.256538, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.370184, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3530500, "relative_activity": 4.504395, "balance": 0.370184, "dry_up": 1.269281, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045137, "annualized_volatility": 0.337848, "from_high_reference": -0.076336, "from_low_reference": 0.315747 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.179481, "fair_value_reference": 2.418136, "structural_low": 1.887407, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.038462, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.029355, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.666666, "worst_return": -0.100917, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.009346, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.011362, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.631579, "worst_return": -0.036364, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.092024, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.151989, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.342105, "worst_return": -0.303478, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.046729, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.079646, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.03, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.009615, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009524, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", 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2.137333, 2.212364, 2.254469, 2.202754 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 2.1, "volume": 1000, "typical_volume": 595055.0, "trend": 2.127654, "fair_value": 2.428669, "relative_strength": -15.88928, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.577949, "energy": 49.531799, "activity_lines": [ 2.118667, 2.180727, 2.242691, 2.201448 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.06, "volume": 240100, "typical_volume": 604350.0, "trend": 2.134691, "fair_value": 2.42568, "relative_strength": -17.325704, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.544424, "energy": 60.517279, "activity_lines": [ 2.096, 2.146182, 2.22655, 2.197083 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.16, "volume": 223200, "typical_volume": 614175.0, "trend": 2.143778, "fair_value": 2.423333, "relative_strength": -13.747435, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.057974, "energy": 42.799176, "activity_lines": [ 2.110667, 2.135636, 2.219753, 2.198716 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.2, "volume": 171700, "typical_volume": 617380.0, "trend": 2.153556, "fair_value": 2.421241, "relative_strength": -11.935974, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.423872, "energy": 16.957645, "activity_lines": [ 2.141333, 2.140727, 2.216201, 2.202343 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.2, "volume": 54000, "typical_volume": 613650.0, "trend": 2.163012, "fair_value": 2.419261, "relative_strength": -10.433408, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -3.317493, "energy": 7.427537, "activity_lines": [ 2.166667, 2.148364, 2.211619, 2.20534 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.42, "volume": 3530500, "typical_volume": 783790.0, "trend": 2.179481, "fair_value": 2.418136, "relative_strength": -0.693673, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.689702, "energy": 40.501853, "activity_lines": [ 2.258667, 2.197455, 2.227143, 2.22192 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }