{ "ticker": { "uuid": "123f9d3c-951a-442d-8925-fad841367bfd", "symbol": "IN0A", "name": "BNP PARIBAS Easy ICAV - BNP Paribas Easy S&P 500 Scored and Screened UCITS ETF UCITS ETF USD CAP", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 89.225, "architecture_energy": 67.859, "architecture_maturity": 47.919, "architecture_confidence": 74.494, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.84, "rotation_up": 55.29, "upward_expansion": 82.35, "deceleration": 70.59, "rotation_down": 28.29, "downward_expansion": 11.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.310533, 19.209309, 19.012895, 18.640869 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 19.914, "trend_reference": 18.224333, "distance_from_trend": 0.092715, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.837026, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.342183, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.50918, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.124322, "excess_performance": 0.059683, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.092715, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036742, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.342183, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035326, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.045092, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071993, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.124322, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.6115, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 73257, "relative_activity": 2.778185, "balance": 3.6115, "dry_up": 1.05762, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016162, "annualized_volatility": 0.128919, "from_high_reference": -0.002105, "from_low_reference": 0.256404 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.224333, "fair_value_reference": 14.837026, "structural_low": 16.24, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.08036, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.077363, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.134518, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.050479, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.031353, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.037598, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00684, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.00713, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.045135, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 10.842, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, 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51.659264, "energy": 52.986253, "activity_lines": [ 19.021733, 19.061854, 18.807914, 18.465054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.054001, "volume": 15973, "typical_volume": 22842.1, "trend": 18.148733, "fair_value": 14.780282, "relative_strength": 2.963906, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.82484, "energy": 44.360954, "activity_lines": [ 19.024133, 19.057891, 18.874495, 18.526981 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.914, "volume": 73257, "typical_volume": 26368.65, "trend": 18.224333, "fair_value": 14.837026, "relative_strength": 4.50918, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.22456, "energy": 67.859143, "activity_lines": [ 19.310533, 19.209309, 19.012895, 18.640869 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }