{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1242eb03-fac9-4d50-aefe-50f34be28274", "symbol": "FMT", "name": "Fine Metal Technologies Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 65.428, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -16.777, "architecture_energy": 8.14, "architecture_maturity": 24.491, "architecture_confidence": 63.375, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 65.3, "rotation_up": 20.54, "upward_expansion": 16.28, "deceleration": 59.18, "rotation_down": 29.16, "downward_expansion": 54.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.886667, 19.909091, 19.580476, 19.635269 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 20.200001, "trend_reference": 20.273333, "distance_from_trend": -0.003617, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 28.079773, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.280621, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -22.996169, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.136752, "excess_performance": -0.329077, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.003617, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071025, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.280621, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.102818, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.229962, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.135663, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.136752, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.683099, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5900, "relative_activity": 0.909792, "balance": 2.683099, "dry_up": 0.836546, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07997, "annualized_volatility": 0.454222, "from_high_reference": -0.378462, "from_low_reference": 0.2625 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.273333, "fair_value_reference": 28.079773, "structural_low": 16.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.015873, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.002482, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.188679, "worst_return": -0.055556, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.012529, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.024281, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.179245, "worst_return": -0.061386, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.090041, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.094534, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.240794, "worst_return": -0.10566, "sufficient": false }, { 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19.885455, 19.317143, 19.753548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.799999, "volume": 9100, "typical_volume": 7460.0, "trend": 20.54, "fair_value": 28.198921, "relative_strength": -27.387256, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.27702, "energy": 13.265304, "activity_lines": [ 19.9, 19.869091, 19.38, 19.695484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.799999, "volume": 6200, "typical_volume": 7360.0, "trend": 20.393333, "fair_value": 28.13662, "relative_strength": -25.743765, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.738839, "energy": 10.248812, "activity_lines": [ 19.846666, 19.838182, 19.460476, 19.647742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.200001, "volume": 5900, "typical_volume": 6485.0, "trend": 20.273333, "fair_value": 28.079773, "relative_strength": -22.996169, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.777116, "energy": 8.140247, "activity_lines": [ 19.886667, 19.909091, 19.580476, 19.635269 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }