{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1249dc5a-8bab-4f88-8a8f-33b191765386", "symbol": "002878", "name": "Beijing Yuanlong Yato Culture Dissemination Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.064, "architecture_energy": 56.228, "architecture_maturity": 71.953, "architecture_confidence": 92.735, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.22, "rotation_up": 27.18, "upward_expansion": 10.16, "deceleration": 60.31, "rotation_down": 52.4, "downward_expansion": 83.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.814667, 11.899455, 13.62519, 14.767269 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 12.32, "trend_reference": 16.287, "distance_from_trend": -0.243568, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.907584, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.225527, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.658632, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.391304, "excess_performance": -0.398704, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.243568, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.114901, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.225527, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.44318, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.316586, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.170792, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.391304, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.84465, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 35044656, "relative_activity": 0.751125, "balance": 0.84465, "dry_up": 0.782718, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.128684, "annualized_volatility": 0.526765, "from_high_reference": -0.456551, "from_low_reference": 0.151402 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.287, "fair_value_reference": 15.907584, "structural_low": 10.7, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.067585, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.007737, "regime_survival": 0.814815, "best_return": 0.338858, "worst_return": -0.193358, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.023216, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.00061, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.706643, "worst_return": -0.260184, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.425, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.330231, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.805777, "worst_return": -0.273519, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"trend": 16.659667, "fair_value": 15.970634, "relative_strength": -38.731087, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.687843, "energy": 76.107991, "activity_lines": [ 11.316, 12.108182, 14.217571, 15.324903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.18, "volume": 37075850, "typical_volume": 46664377.2, "trend": 16.483667, "fair_value": 15.936297, "relative_strength": -29.719769, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.103515, "energy": 62.729508, "activity_lines": [ 11.568, 11.964182, 13.90419, 15.035892 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.32, "volume": 35044656, "typical_volume": 46656199.75, "trend": 16.287, "fair_value": 15.907584, "relative_strength": -31.658632, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.064046, "energy": 56.227668, "activity_lines": [ 11.814667, 11.899455, 13.62519, 14.767269 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }