{ "ticker": { "uuid": "124e336e-e529-40b5-8d04-5f0b0f32735a", "symbol": "300894", "name": "Marssenger Kitchenware Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 18.008, "architecture_energy": 13.181, "architecture_maturity": 42.46, "architecture_confidence": 68.18, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.49, "rotation_up": 34.13, "upward_expansion": 26.96, "deceleration": 61.38, "rotation_down": 40.19, "downward_expansion": 31.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.032667, 11.126727, 10.796714, 10.771699 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 12.22, "trend_reference": 10.93, "distance_from_trend": 0.118024, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.797813, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.114352, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.487723, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.05618, "excess_performance": 0.04878, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.118024, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028991, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.114352, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.175558, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.004877, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.310665, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.05618, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.079527, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 62935165, "relative_activity": 1.848295, "balance": 1.079527, "dry_up": 1.725695, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.140438, "annualized_volatility": 0.775472, "from_high_reference": -0.180416, "from_low_reference": 0.454762 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.93, "fair_value_reference": 13.797813, "structural_low": 8.4, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.026299, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.015176, "regime_survival": 0.357143, "best_return": 0.145184, "worst_return": -0.161779, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.076538, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.073403, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.160456, "worst_return": -0.236576, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.052786, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.079386, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.009572, "worst_return": -0.216679, 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14.034784, "relative_strength": -19.501348, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -4.491599, "energy": 11.624923, "activity_lines": [ 11.216667, 11.024364, 10.696429, 10.784989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.86, "volume": 51844116, "typical_volume": 29540426.4, "trend": 10.905667, "fair_value": 13.941545, "relative_strength": -25.766131, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.696688, "energy": 21.196761, "activity_lines": [ 10.365333, 10.685273, 10.531238, 10.647269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.53, "volume": 68890585, "typical_volume": 31920600.5, "trend": 10.915667, "fair_value": 13.867777, "relative_strength": -1.063557, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.46508, "energy": 12.631639, "activity_lines": [ 10.616, 10.856909, 10.631238, 10.687548 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.22, "volume": 62935165, "typical_volume": 34050389.95, "trend": 10.93, "fair_value": 13.797813, "relative_strength": 0.487723, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.008053, "energy": 13.181053, "activity_lines": [ 11.032667, 11.126727, 10.796714, 10.771699 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }