{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1251d9ba-9dfd-476d-a6ad-9b3952118778", "symbol": "JOMA", "name": "John Mattson Fastighetsf\u00f6retagen AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -36.813, "architecture_energy": 20.125, "architecture_maturity": 51.817, "architecture_confidence": 74.251, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.87, "rotation_up": 25.48, "upward_expansion": 12.4, "deceleration": 55.43, "rotation_down": 40.18, "downward_expansion": 66.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 58.76, 58.747273, 59.028121, 59.524836 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 58.5, "trend_reference": 60.765991, "distance_from_trend": -0.03729, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 59.255934, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.012757, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.956606, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.118001, "excess_performance": -0.179495, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.03729, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048687, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.012757, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020549, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.169566, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007444, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.118001, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.015898, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 53739, "relative_activity": 0.373201, "balance": 1.015898, "dry_up": 0.693032, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041946, "annualized_volatility": 0.209192, "from_high_reference": -0.195327, "from_low_reference": 0.045216 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 60.765991, "fair_value_reference": 59.255934, "structural_low": 55.969295, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.012483, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.00941, "regime_survival": 0.84, "best_return": 0.199166, "worst_return": -0.300609, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.078869, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.064276, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.20937, "worst_return": -0.317, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.151786, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.144852, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.295515, "worst_return": -0.295775, "sufficient": true }, { 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.448565, "energy": 30.300134, "activity_lines": [ 58.860001, 59.014546, 59.298895, 60.27019 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 58.599998, "volume": 106131, "typical_volume": 148033.75, "trend": 61.770972, "fair_value": 59.042489, "relative_strength": -13.825909, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.421462, "energy": 25.636638, "activity_lines": [ 58.846667, 58.905455, 59.190317, 60.046853 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 58.0, "volume": 76910, "typical_volume": 146042.5, "trend": 61.413747, "fair_value": 59.101163, "relative_strength": -15.666287, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.985575, "energy": 24.996435, "activity_lines": [ 58.653333, 58.690909, 59.050957, 59.803565 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 59.700001, "volume": 162392, "typical_volume": 148134.0, "trend": 61.106549, "fair_value": 59.188101, "relative_strength": -14.016785, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.524762, "energy": 18.365808, "activity_lines": [ 58.973334, 58.809091, 59.093234, 59.693001 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 58.5, "volume": 53739, "typical_volume": 143994.75, "trend": 60.765991, "fair_value": 59.255934, "relative_strength": -16.956606, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.812854, "energy": 20.124618, "activity_lines": [ 58.76, 58.747273, 59.028121, 59.524836 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }