{ "ticker": { "uuid": "125b3511-20c1-4c4e-9fec-40c30d5afa11", "symbol": "CCIF", "name": "Carlyle Credit Income Fund", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.044, "architecture_energy": 27.555, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 64.147, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.21, "rotation_up": 23.11, "upward_expansion": 13.84, "deceleration": 65.85, "rotation_down": 40.8, "downward_expansion": 63.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.777117, 2.768144, 2.83343, 2.886242 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.84, "trend_reference": 3.039272, "distance_from_trend": -0.065566, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.49109, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.367637, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.040586, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.205603, "excess_performance": -0.331228, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.065566, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.12215, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.367637, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009721, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.290406, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050605, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.205603, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.549712, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 424262, "relative_activity": 0.781252, "balance": 0.549712, "dry_up": 1.017279, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06781, "annualized_volatility": 0.276834, "from_high_reference": -0.393045, "from_low_reference": 0.129525 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.039272, "fair_value_reference": 4.49109, "structural_low": 2.514332, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.002236, "positive_rate": 0.518519, "directional_follow_through": 0.481481, "median_excess_return": -0.031346, "regime_survival": 0.814815, "best_return": 0.111152, "worst_return": -0.201013, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.005124, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.085674, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.109187, "worst_return": -0.262045, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.038889, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.030757, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.103626, "worst_return": -0.350153, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-22", "end": "2023-12-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.023166, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-01-05", "end": "2024-01-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02002, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2024-04-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.039007, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019963, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.028053, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "New", 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"typical_volume": 568469.1, "trend": 3.114695, "fair_value": 4.510541, "relative_strength": -31.924056, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.725588, "energy": 46.63518, "activity_lines": [ 2.722684, 2.758312, 2.845026, 2.921756 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.8, "volume": 559454, "typical_volume": 566642.1, "trend": 3.075759, "fair_value": 4.500776, "relative_strength": -28.315476, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.431987, "energy": 36.603053, "activity_lines": [ 2.746233, 2.758013, 2.837084, 2.901453 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.84, "volume": 424262, "typical_volume": 543054.1, "trend": 3.039272, "fair_value": 4.49109, "relative_strength": -29.040586, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.043503, "energy": 27.555461, "activity_lines": [ 2.777117, 2.768144, 2.83343, 2.886242 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }