{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "125daa37-61c3-41b7-b8b5-8e49e6b78882",
    "symbol": "TSO",
    "name": "Tesoro Gold Ltd",
    "exchange": "ASX",
    "country": "AU",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^AXJO",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -59.944,
    "architecture_energy": 50.537,
    "architecture_maturity": 17.65,
    "architecture_confidence": 92.503,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 12.02,
        "rotation_up": 17.42,
        "upward_expansion": 8.75,
        "deceleration": 43.75,
        "rotation_down": 61.35,
        "downward_expansion": 84.41
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        0.865333,
        0.881727,
        0.928714,
        0.950097
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.833333
    },
    "latest_close": 0.9,
    "trend_reference": 0.995167,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.095629,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 0.599518,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.501205,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -12.381833,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.126214,
    "excess_performance": -0.189919,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.095629,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.065132,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.501205,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.375194,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.123818,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.36291,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.126214,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.728421,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 212021,
      "relative_activity": 0.478668,
      "balance": 0.728421,
      "dry_up": 0.674484,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.097863,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.425933,
      "from_high_reference": -0.372822,
      "from_low_reference": 0.818185
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 0.995167,
      "fair_value_reference": 0.599518,
      "structural_low": 0.76,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 33,
        "median_return": -0.04762,
        "positive_rate": 0.393939,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.545455,
        "median_excess_return": -0.048023,
        "regime_survival": 0.848485,
        "best_return": 0.428572,
        "worst_return": -0.306666,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 11,
        "median_return": -0.129033,
        "positive_rate": 0.363636,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.545455,
        "median_excess_return": -0.136831,
        "regime_survival": 0.636364,
        "best_return": 0.866671,
        "worst_return": -0.48276,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": -0.210206,
        "positive_rate": 0.166667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.833333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.237788,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.173914,
        "worst_return": -0.552941,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.14042,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.212622,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 1.956527,
        "worst_return": -0.729412,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
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        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-06-21",
        "end": "2024-07-26",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.034483,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
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        "end": "2024-09-13",
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      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-11-22",
        "end": "2025-02-21",
        "tenure": "Established",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2025-04-11",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.15625,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "end": "2025-08-08",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.096774,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2025-11-14",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.742859,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-11-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.093138,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "return": 0.03,
        "active": false
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        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "typical_volume": 1234270.25,
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        "relative_strength": 17.450403,
        "stage": 3,
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        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "relative_strength": 11.893841,
        "stage": 3,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "typical_volume": 975500.7,
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        "stage": 3,
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      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "trend": 1.062833,
        "fair_value": 0.581249,
        "relative_strength": 1.635297,
        "stage": 3,
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        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "down",
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        "energy": 42.326908,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "volume": 5416,
        "typical_volume": 706759.75,
        "trend": 1.059333,
        "fair_value": 0.584294,
        "relative_strength": -5.044172,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "down",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "volume": 186575,
        "typical_volume": 640714.45,
        "trend": 1.051333,
        "fair_value": 0.587018,
        "relative_strength": -9.101286,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -66.892779,
        "energy": 56.391865,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.904,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 0.88,
        "volume": 88919,
        "typical_volume": 565524.6,
        "trend": 1.037,
        "fair_value": 0.590256,
        "relative_strength": -7.664797,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -61.566775,
        "energy": 58.154018,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.892,
          0.921545,
          0.958476,
          0.981968
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 0.82,
        "volume": 448063,
        "typical_volume": 529083.2,
        "trend": 1.0205,
        "fair_value": 0.593204,
        "relative_strength": -14.378899,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -71.32946,
        "energy": 68.349638,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.862,
          0.898818,
          0.944405,
          0.967968
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 0.85,
        "volume": 446019,
        "typical_volume": 489191.0,
        "trend": 1.0065,
        "fair_value": 0.596153,
        "relative_strength": -14.020483,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -63.614362,
        "energy": 64.258172,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.852333,
          0.884727,
          0.934024,
          0.956968
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 0.9,
        "volume": 212021,
        "typical_volume": 442939.15,
        "trend": 0.995167,
        "fair_value": 0.599518,
        "relative_strength": -12.381833,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -59.943949,
        "energy": 50.536808,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.865333,
          0.881727,
          0.928714,
          0.950097
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}