{ "ticker": { "uuid": "125f8cfb-18df-4bd2-a1a4-c526de810e9b", "symbol": "NTRA", "name": "Natera Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 88.153, "architecture_energy": 72.39, "architecture_maturity": 28.0, "architecture_confidence": 78.231, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.56, "rotation_up": 74.27, "upward_expansion": 85.93, "deceleration": 52.58, "rotation_down": 13.27, "downward_expansion": 12.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 285.349333, 273.165636, 248.299571, 235.239011 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 322.1, "trend_reference": 223.937333, "distance_from_trend": 0.438349, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 146.396474, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.20019, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 32.861251, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.586387, "excess_performance": 0.398933, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.438349, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049124, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.20019, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.705845, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.328613, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.476267, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.586387, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.927481, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9185653, "relative_activity": 1.334581, "balance": 1.927481, "dry_up": 0.867257, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.08568, "annualized_volatility": 0.493195, "from_high_reference": -0.002817, "from_low_reference": 1.156318 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 223.937333, "fair_value_reference": 146.396474, "structural_low": 181.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.011995, "positive_rate": 0.576923, "directional_follow_through": 0.576923, "median_excess_return": -0.002855, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.278674, "worst_return": -0.145164, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.160204, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.084483, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.517423, "worst_return": -0.243115, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.088211, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.071532, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.760519, "worst_return": -0.686372, "sufficient": true }, { 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224.542238, 219.349613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 271.39, "volume": 5314097, "typical_volume": 7008866.15, "trend": 218.772, "fair_value": 141.917372, "relative_strength": 19.572829, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.697121, "energy": 84.145605, "activity_lines": [ 268.662667, 250.623273, 230.057857, 222.829118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 261.99, "volume": 3933388, "typical_volume": 6876495.6, "trend": 219.713667, "fair_value": 143.302692, "relative_strength": 16.366336, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.226243, "energy": 80.010291, "activity_lines": [ 268.394, 255.452727, 234.376571, 225.617376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 267.76, "volume": 5443475, "typical_volume": 6811113.25, "trend": 221.011, "fair_value": 144.692051, "relative_strength": 17.283093, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.082311, "energy": 63.551264, "activity_lines": [ 268.01, 259.956182, 238.940714, 228.71714 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 322.1, "volume": 9185653, "typical_volume": 6882797.35, "trend": 223.937333, "fair_value": 146.396474, "relative_strength": 32.861251, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.152961, "energy": 72.390172, "activity_lines": [ 285.349333, 273.165636, 248.299571, 235.239011 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }