{ "ticker": { "uuid": "125ff9f4-8d82-46d6-b2e5-e260b95667a1", "symbol": "MSI", "name": "Multistack International Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.35, "architecture_energy": 80.311, "architecture_maturity": 48.412, "architecture_confidence": 92.901, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.52, "rotation_up": 29.73, "upward_expansion": 20.98, "deceleration": 37.55, "rotation_down": 43.91, "downward_expansion": 74.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.003, 0.003, 0.003186, 0.003247 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.003, "trend_reference": 0.0034, "distance_from_trend": -0.117647, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.004718, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.36413, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.740983, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.25, "excess_performance": -0.313706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.117647, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.163934, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.36413, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.147066, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.27741, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.175991, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.25, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": null, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": null, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025641, "annualized_volatility": 0.700143, "from_high_reference": -0.5, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0034, "fair_value_reference": 0.004718, "structural_low": 0.003, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.257143, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.011, "regime_survival": 0.828571, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.2, "positive_rate": 0.153846, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": -0.193985, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.25, "worst_return": -0.368421, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.321429, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.219799, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.8, "worst_return": -0.578947, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.62, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.538066, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.736842, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": 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"relative_strength": -28.345035, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.989392, "energy": 87.773847, "activity_lines": [ 0.003, 0.003182, 0.003329, 0.003441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.003, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 5786.85, "trend": 0.003667, "fair_value": 0.004833, "relative_strength": -26.968599, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.308211, "energy": 66.782539, "activity_lines": [ 0.003, 0.003109, 0.0033, 0.003394 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.003, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3286.85, "trend": 0.0036, "fair_value": 0.004801, "relative_strength": -26.191793, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.59645, "energy": 87.39493, "activity_lines": [ 0.003, 0.003055, 0.003271, 0.003351 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.003, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3286.85, "trend": 0.003533, "fair_value": 0.004769, "relative_strength": -25.255688, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.067915, "energy": 85.642061, "activity_lines": [ 0.003, 0.003018, 0.003243, 0.003312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.003, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3286.85, "trend": 0.003467, "fair_value": 0.004737, "relative_strength": -26.204606, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.934181, "energy": 82.326889, "activity_lines": [ 0.003, 0.003, 0.003214, 0.003277 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.003, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3286.85, "trend": 0.0034, "fair_value": 0.004718, "relative_strength": -27.740983, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.349755, "energy": 80.311088, "activity_lines": [ 0.003, 0.003, 0.003186, 0.003247 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }