{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1266792c-c8f0-4f2e-82b9-d8e7999c4726", "symbol": "FE", "name": "FirstEnergy Corporation", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 71.994, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 9.039, "architecture_energy": 13.15, "architecture_maturity": 16.732, "architecture_confidence": 63.066, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.46, "rotation_up": 45.41, "upward_expansion": 39.24, "deceleration": 31.56, "rotation_down": 22.26, "downward_expansion": 16.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 48.039752, 47.925633, 47.474912, 47.758187 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 47.47, "trend_reference": 47.908297, "distance_from_trend": -0.009149, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 39.899933, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.189726, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.643211, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.028494, "excess_performance": -0.097131, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.009149, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02202, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.189726, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046983, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.086432, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025531, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.028494, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.114595, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26282427, "relative_activity": 1.13732, "balance": 1.114595, "dry_up": 1.074867, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039839, "annualized_volatility": 0.21567, "from_high_reference": -0.083709, "from_low_reference": 0.144196 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 47.908297, "fair_value_reference": 39.899933, "structural_low": 43.725, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.028151, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.003874, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.057893, "worst_return": -0.090886, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.023971, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": 0.004226, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.173324, "worst_return": -0.031817, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.06739, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.050681, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.179349, "worst_return": 0.006562, 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"close": 49.435744, "volume": 17578924, "typical_volume": 22624966.95, "trend": 47.669671, "fair_value": 39.707328, "relative_strength": -0.688243, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 35.676187, "energy": 27.562867, "activity_lines": [ 48.424635, 47.863386, 47.499221, 47.767446 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 47.841362, "volume": 32154934, "typical_volume": 23195431.8, "trend": 47.785206, "fair_value": 39.80645, "relative_strength": -4.83908, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.425709, "energy": 18.873499, "activity_lines": [ 48.273133, 47.942191, 47.49809, 47.778522 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 47.47, "volume": 26282427, "typical_volume": 23109093.85, "trend": 47.908297, "fair_value": 39.899933, "relative_strength": -8.643211, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 9.039438, "energy": 13.149877, "activity_lines": [ 48.039752, 47.925633, 47.474912, 47.758187 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }