{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "1268e68a-9800-4430-8bd0-09196298e76a",
    "symbol": "PSH",
    "name": "Pershing Square Holdings, Ltd.",
    "exchange": "LSE",
    "country": "GB",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FTSE",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -47.064,
    "architecture_energy": 36.564,
    "architecture_maturity": 69.003,
    "architecture_confidence": 59.521,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 29.55,
        "rotation_up": 23.95,
        "upward_expansion": 15.94,
        "deceleration": 63.7,
        "rotation_down": 44.16,
        "downward_expansion": 65.94
      },
      "activity_lines": [
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      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": -0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 3912.0,
    "trend_reference": 4101.934383,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.046304,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 3933.458906,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.005455,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -17.309093,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.130979,
    "excess_performance": -0.182214,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.046304,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.073231,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.005455,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.082733,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.173091,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.065052,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.130979,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.381705,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 919294,
      "relative_activity": 1.437833,
      "balance": 1.381705,
      "dry_up": 1.369143,
      "accumulation_observations": 5,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.039628,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.252465,
      "from_high_reference": -0.232123,
      "from_low_reference": 0.074135
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    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 4101.934383,
      "fair_value_reference": 3933.458906,
      "structural_low": 3642.0,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 16,
        "median_return": 0.00897,
        "positive_rate": 0.625,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.375,
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        "regime_survival": 0.75,
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        "worst_return": -0.054582,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
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        "positive_rate": 0.833333,
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        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
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        "worst_return": -0.080363,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
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        "worst_return": 0.090988,
        "sufficient": false
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      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
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        "fair_value": 3933.458906,
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    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}