{ "ticker": { "uuid": "126b92f1-02c2-4e0f-9841-c3d60342b287", "symbol": "TOMZ", "name": "TOMI Environmental Solutions Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -18.637, "architecture_energy": 41.848, "architecture_maturity": 13.498, "architecture_confidence": 72.03, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.37, "rotation_up": 17.37, "upward_expansion": 24.38, "deceleration": 49.5, "rotation_down": 61.01, "downward_expansion": 47.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.779213, 2.000784, 2.155092, 2.13441 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.82, "trend_reference": 2.125493, "distance_from_trend": -0.143728, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.539069, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.283202, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.835051, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.14794, "excess_performance": -0.335394, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.143728, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032662, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.283202, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.26327, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.318351, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.133101, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.14794, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.809608, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 144896, "relative_activity": 0.065691, "balance": 1.809608, "dry_up": 0.170014, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.28609, "annualized_volatility": 0.887732, "from_high_reference": -0.494444, "from_low_reference": 0.309353 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.125493, "fair_value_reference": 2.539069, "structural_low": 1.39, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.056902, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.004662, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.218376, "worst_return": -0.104572, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.080779, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.038863, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.438746, "worst_return": -0.277188, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.145443, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.052479, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.383761, "worst_return": -0.092875, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.009907, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.294262, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.193745, "worst_return": -0.173932, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.581795, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.139995, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.187447, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.126353, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.006197, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.255814, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.048544, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.072933, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.147642, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.043038, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005147, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.151613, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.354865, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3.15, "volume": 1156365, "typical_volume": 783305.45, "trend": 2.12922, "fair_value": 6.259123, "relative_strength": 29.620294, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.790886, "energy": 79.08582, 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2.229366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.4156, "volume": 532435, "typical_volume": 3068079.2, "trend": 2.20608, "fair_value": 2.553095, "relative_strength": -14.665419, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.993287, "energy": 15.615781, "activity_lines": [ 2.38576, 2.456825, 2.31121, 2.242914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.0763, "volume": 1056575, "typical_volume": 2234744.3, "trend": 2.19828, "fair_value": 2.55352, "relative_strength": -22.663612, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.241507, "energy": 11.376347, "activity_lines": [ 2.29902, 2.38452, 2.301087, 2.234541 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.54, "volume": 225293, "typical_volume": 2226789.75, "trend": 2.169713, "fair_value": 2.54878, "relative_strength": -40.836716, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.708452, "energy": 20.949695, "activity_lines": [ 2.038613, 2.2219, 2.239858, 2.192071 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.6, "volume": 73250, "typical_volume": 2222809.3, "trend": 2.144037, "fair_value": 2.545287, "relative_strength": -37.936854, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.266156, "energy": 38.094862, "activity_lines": [ 1.84668, 2.084582, 2.18634, 2.155315 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.82, "volume": 144896, "typical_volume": 2205718.65, "trend": 2.125493, "fair_value": 2.539069, "relative_strength": -31.835051, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.637457, "energy": 41.848093, "activity_lines": [ 1.779213, 2.000784, 2.155092, 2.13441 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }