{ "ticker": { "uuid": "126eb9b2-f7f6-49ee-8084-66f9afa05064", "symbol": "RMT", "name": "Royce Micro-Cap Trust Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 50.364, "architecture_energy": 32.166, "architecture_maturity": 63.233, "architecture_confidence": 90.687, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.73, "rotation_up": 34.5, "upward_expansion": 63.73, "deceleration": 88.21, "rotation_down": 27.14, "downward_expansion": 16.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.925333, 13.993354, 13.771021, 13.312959 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 14.23, "trend_reference": 12.700912, "distance_from_trend": 0.120392, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.091061, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.565274, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 11.075066, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.247892, "excess_performance": 0.122267, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.120392, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.117175, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.565274, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020957, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.110751, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07775, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.247892, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.832465, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 685887, "relative_activity": 1.059415, "balance": 0.832465, "dry_up": 0.963516, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046913, "annualized_volatility": 0.191904, "from_high_reference": -0.037212, "from_low_reference": 0.618528 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.700912, "fair_value_reference": 9.091061, "structural_low": 10.82562, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.034056, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.00088, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.17835, "worst_return": -0.047454, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.062107, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.005163, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.271908, "worst_return": -0.173673, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.102892, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.043217, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.395316, "worst_return": 0.030358, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.002358, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.184314, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.043231, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.01973, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.021835, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.03416, "active": false }, { 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8.96177, "relative_strength": 14.91422, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.35175, "energy": 53.972368, "activity_lines": [ 14.110667, 14.011741, 13.54556, 13.042405 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.76, "volume": 696880, "typical_volume": 665377.0, "trend": 12.473049, "fair_value": 9.003892, "relative_strength": 13.520196, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.05129, "energy": 42.109231, "activity_lines": [ 13.980667, 13.996028, 13.621578, 13.13294 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.62, "volume": 496418, "typical_volume": 655452.15, "trend": 12.586663, "fair_value": 9.045522, "relative_strength": 10.618512, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.377994, "energy": 30.43241, "activity_lines": [ 13.834667, 13.942163, 13.673178, 13.206937 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.23, "volume": 685887, "typical_volume": 647420.65, "trend": 12.700912, "fair_value": 9.091061, "relative_strength": 11.075066, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.364343, "energy": 32.166405, "activity_lines": [ 13.925333, 13.993354, 13.771021, 13.312959 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }