{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1270d27c-80fb-433b-abec-fe9500f5d13d", "symbol": "KSM-F55", "name": "KSm Mutual Funds Ltd. - KSM ETF (4A) TA-SME60", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.475, "architecture_energy": 66.655, "architecture_maturity": 93.0, "architecture_confidence": 94.271, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.38, "rotation_up": 29.98, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.97, "rotation_down": 52.72, "downward_expansion": 83.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 111.3, 112.621818, 2616.058095, 4764.645591 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 108.0, "trend_reference": 7192.326667, "distance_from_trend": -0.984984, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7022.158974, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.98462, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.833018, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.990018, "excess_performance": -1.018919, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.984984, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.316148, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.98462, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.747171, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.98833, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.984989, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.990018, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.118063, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 37339, "relative_activity": 0.9113, "balance": 0.118063, "dry_up": 0.826922, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 9.236823, "annualized_volatility": 6.329881, "from_high_reference": -0.991673, "from_low_reference": 0.000927 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7192.326667, "fair_value_reference": 7022.158974, "structural_low": 107.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.005148, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.008402, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.132895, "worst_return": -0.083033, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.043304, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.009244, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.184824, "worst_return": -0.16864, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.063136, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.002052, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.197117, "worst_return": -0.132638, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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6271.795484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 114.5, "volume": 13779, "typical_volume": 41263.35, "trend": 7902.006667, "fair_value": 7086.437179, "relative_strength": -98.846849, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.759076, "energy": 67.514811, "activity_lines": [ 113.726667, 322.003636, 3761.105714, 5747.88 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 111.6, "volume": 51106, "typical_volume": 42056.8, "trend": 7557.726667, "fair_value": 7054.928205, "relative_strength": -98.818983, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.60955, "energy": 67.078691, "activity_lines": [ 113.14, 113.927273, 3162.971429, 5245.273118 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 108.0, "volume": 37339, "typical_volume": 40973.35, "trend": 7192.326667, "fair_value": 7022.158974, "relative_strength": -98.833018, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.475373, "energy": 66.655205, "activity_lines": [ 111.3, 112.621818, 2616.058095, 4764.645591 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }