{ "ticker": { "uuid": "127a00ad-afe6-4b1d-b91d-2c6c26de9bba", "symbol": "600918", "name": "Zhongtai Securities Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -30.32, "architecture_energy": 23.684, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 70.219, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.1, "rotation_up": 33.04, "upward_expansion": 18.85, "deceleration": 46.99, "rotation_down": 22.23, "downward_expansion": 55.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.561333, 5.464489, 5.524262, 5.676114 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 5.56, "trend_reference": 5.903994, "distance_from_trend": -0.058265, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.461534, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.139523, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.595539, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.12989, "excess_performance": -0.086687, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.058265, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07053, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.139523, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051503, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.115955, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047033, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.12989, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.589242, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 163762797, "relative_activity": 1.209024, "balance": 0.589242, "dry_up": 1.919436, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053892, "annualized_volatility": 0.19006, "from_high_reference": -0.252688, "from_low_reference": 0.09628 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.903994, "fair_value_reference": 6.461534, "structural_low": 5.071698, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.007019, "positive_rate": 0.40625, "directional_follow_through": 0.59375, "median_excess_return": -0.010418, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.295231, "worst_return": -0.143902, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.053763, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.030549, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.195457, "worst_return": -0.19482, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.099013, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.073022, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.142004, "worst_return": -0.157492, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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[ 5.537899, 5.431758, 5.536547, 5.700329 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.56, "volume": 163762797, "typical_volume": 135450438.55, "trend": 5.903994, "fair_value": 6.461534, "relative_strength": -11.595539, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.320036, "energy": 23.683971, "activity_lines": [ 5.561333, 5.464489, 5.524262, 5.676114 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }