{ "ticker": { "uuid": "128001e2-743a-41e5-8bdb-05d04945cabd", "symbol": "SAUM", "name": "iShares MSCI EMU Screened UCITS ETF EUR (Acc)", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 78.431, "architecture_energy": 52.091, "architecture_maturity": 35.962, "architecture_confidence": 69.167, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.01, "rotation_up": 48.83, "upward_expansion": 78.59, "deceleration": 68.49, "rotation_down": 27.58, "downward_expansion": 7.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.658467, 9.6387, 9.503407, 9.352586 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 9.8785, "trend_reference": 9.196383, "distance_from_trend": 0.074172, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.61561, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.297138, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.154837, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.093057, "excess_performance": 0.041821, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.074172, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034594, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.297138, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058932, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.021548, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017823, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.093057, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.305537, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 264846, "relative_activity": 0.362586, "balance": 2.305537, "dry_up": 1.229961, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022255, "annualized_volatility": 0.171855, "from_high_reference": -0.003078, "from_low_reference": 0.229587 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.196383, "fair_value_reference": 7.61561, "structural_low": 8.153, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.016078, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.001643, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.108964, "worst_return": -0.047642, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.054267, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.002447, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.171793, "worst_return": -0.008635, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.061772, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.003642, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.183122, "worst_return": -0.025257, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 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"2025-01-31", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.045997, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.092586, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.071229, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019266, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.012252, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.000957, "active": false }, { 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"Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.121448, "energy": 73.431955, "activity_lines": [ 9.649133, 9.567709, 9.342407, 9.226285 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.445, "volume": 1001560, "typical_volume": 687618.3, "trend": 9.114367, "fair_value": 7.549562, "relative_strength": 0.476989, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.303641, "energy": 47.4226, "activity_lines": [ 9.5777, 9.564073, 9.369398, 9.249042 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.543, "volume": 592017, "typical_volume": 672510.2, "trend": 9.141367, "fair_value": 7.570101, "relative_strength": 0.251115, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.888415, "energy": 39.07347, "activity_lines": [ 9.549333, 9.571673, 9.405398, 9.276696 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.606, "volume": 1735207, "typical_volume": 737158.4, "trend": 9.166833, "fair_value": 7.591863, "relative_strength": -0.337155, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.385099, "energy": 32.985346, "activity_lines": [ 9.558533, 9.582818, 9.44376, 9.306672 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.8785, "volume": 264846, "typical_volume": 730436.05, "trend": 9.196383, "fair_value": 7.61561, "relative_strength": 2.154837, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.431395, "energy": 52.091374, "activity_lines": [ 9.658467, 9.6387, 9.503407, 9.352586 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }