{ "ticker": { "uuid": "12826491-e58c-4fa2-a292-80c30efd88ae", "symbol": "TQSM", "name": "TD Q U.S. Small-Mid-Cap Equity ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 79.245, "architecture_energy": 68.372, "architecture_maturity": 88.828, "architecture_confidence": 73.027, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.71, "rotation_up": 57.28, "upward_expansion": 85.33, "deceleration": 68.6, "rotation_down": 28.91, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.128667, 30.01032, 29.193303, 28.391034 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 30.530001, "trend_reference": 27.486376, "distance_from_trend": 0.110732, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.813949, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.282022, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.01939, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.154349, "excess_performance": 0.033928, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.110732, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05561, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.282022, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.069947, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.020194, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044278, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.154349, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.687868, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 48300, "relative_activity": 1.181651, "balance": 0.687868, "dry_up": 1.065443, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021375, "annualized_volatility": 0.126855, "from_high_reference": -0.019589, "from_low_reference": 0.267702 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.486376, "fair_value_reference": 23.813949, "structural_low": 24.381099, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 0.007821, "positive_rate": 0.558824, "directional_follow_through": 0.558824, "median_excess_return": -5.6e-05, "regime_survival": 0.705882, "best_return": 0.091209, "worst_return": -0.056663, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.034997, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.001888, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.120569, "worst_return": -0.078672, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.047398, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": 0.027675, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.152843, "worst_return": -0.003585, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"fair_value": 23.67452, "relative_strength": 3.093788, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.510053, "energy": 80.050178, "activity_lines": [ 30.003334, 29.71684, 28.757763, 28.011804 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.889999, "volume": 37200, "typical_volume": 46135.0, "trend": 27.34764, "fair_value": 23.742589, "relative_strength": 3.077985, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.610476, "energy": 64.577183, "activity_lines": [ 29.949333, 29.825368, 28.957175, 28.18572 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.530001, "volume": 48300, "typical_volume": 40875.0, "trend": 27.486376, "fair_value": 23.813949, "relative_strength": 2.01939, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.244884, "energy": 68.371717, "activity_lines": [ 30.128667, 30.01032, 29.193303, 28.391034 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }