{ "ticker": { "uuid": "12827263-201f-4b1a-8467-9c85e1ce0517", "symbol": "SBSI", "name": "Southside Bancshares, Inc.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 66.971, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 18.265, "architecture_energy": 14.505, "architecture_maturity": 71.675, "architecture_confidence": 75.069, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.26, "rotation_up": 23.02, "upward_expansion": 55.97, "deceleration": 87.56, "rotation_down": 35.45, "downward_expansion": 21.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.26, 33.788545, 33.563112, 33.068713 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 32.44, "trend_reference": 32.52202, "distance_from_trend": -0.002522, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.697639, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.130407, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.539141, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.011404, "excess_performance": -0.137029, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.002522, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045999, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.130407, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049761, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.065391, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058563, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.011404, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.777313, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 626707, "relative_activity": 1.144573, "balance": 0.777313, "dry_up": 1.372491, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052496, "annualized_volatility": 0.204332, "from_high_reference": -0.103867, "from_low_reference": 0.276201 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.52202, "fair_value_reference": 28.697639, "structural_low": 28.71793, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.006427, "positive_rate": 0.470588, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": -0.035651, "regime_survival": 0.588235, "best_return": 0.082981, "worst_return": -0.147327, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.001976, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.006026, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.116959, "worst_return": -0.119478, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.015276, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.079239, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.009747, "worst_return": -0.162744, 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"activity_lines": [ 34.552, 34.026022, 33.279704, 32.762481 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 34.84, "volume": 699100, "typical_volume": 534360.45, "trend": 32.259133, "fair_value": 28.617382, "relative_strength": 4.338603, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.263229, "energy": 53.488637, "activity_lines": [ 34.672667, 34.258103, 33.504963, 32.9365 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 34.21, "volume": 746232, "typical_volume": 540533.95, "trend": 32.380318, "fair_value": 28.652012, "relative_strength": 3.024802, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.908982, "energy": 37.916399, "activity_lines": [ 34.556, 34.342182, 33.651806, 33.062362 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.51, "volume": 933970, "typical_volume": 558502.95, "trend": 32.471245, "fair_value": 28.671297, "relative_strength": -3.114896, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.97426, "energy": 17.413491, "activity_lines": [ 33.834, 34.069636, 33.617749, 33.070729 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.44, "volume": 626707, "typical_volume": 547546.4, "trend": 32.52202, "fair_value": 28.697639, "relative_strength": -6.539141, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.265471, "energy": 14.504916, "activity_lines": [ 33.26, 33.788545, 33.563112, 33.068713 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }