{ "ticker": { "uuid": "128530b5-5a74-4194-a98e-62674387f9e7", "symbol": "PAGS", "name": "PagSeguro Digital Ltd", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -31.153, "architecture_energy": 15.287, "architecture_maturity": 43.153, "architecture_confidence": 60.788, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.82, "rotation_up": 28.05, "upward_expansion": 19.24, "deceleration": 39.96, "rotation_down": 25.72, "downward_expansion": 53.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.279333, 9.187818, 9.264603, 9.432381 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 9.14, "trend_reference": 9.698155, "distance_from_trend": -0.057553, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.272534, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.014293, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.301695, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.148239, "excess_performance": -0.273864, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.057553, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013972, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.014293, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.098917, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.143017, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.113519, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.148239, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.427266, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12342046, "relative_activity": 0.777958, "balance": 1.427266, "dry_up": 0.844041, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076458, "annualized_volatility": 0.373609, "from_high_reference": -0.24019, "from_low_reference": 0.159567 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.698155, "fair_value_reference": 9.272534, "structural_low": 8.49, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.011986, "positive_rate": 0.392857, "directional_follow_through": 0.607143, "median_excess_return": -0.035715, "regime_survival": 0.821429, "best_return": 0.571961, "worst_return": -0.302182, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.079994, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.041366, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.582278, "worst_return": -0.509493, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.064285, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.012862, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.592405, "worst_return": -0.618305, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.741779, "energy": 24.537766, "activity_lines": [ 9.102667, 9.053091, 9.347457, 9.553293 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.04, "volume": 14604624, "typical_volume": 17640177.4, "trend": 9.723503, "fair_value": 9.275917, "relative_strength": -11.833389, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.193571, "energy": 21.536892, "activity_lines": [ 9.101333, 9.038727, 9.301144, 9.508762 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.2, "volume": 14312034, "typical_volume": 16939293.0, "trend": 9.715343, "fair_value": 9.270436, "relative_strength": -9.755195, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.358807, "energy": 18.621923, "activity_lines": [ 9.148, 9.072545, 9.276354, 9.474988 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.64, "volume": 12303062, "typical_volume": 15960831.2, "trend": 9.725072, "fair_value": 9.271396, "relative_strength": -6.578739, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.780939, "energy": 14.341108, "activity_lines": [ 9.316, 9.180182, 9.295457, 9.470127 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.14, "volume": 12342046, "typical_volume": 15864673.3, "trend": 9.698155, "fair_value": 9.272534, "relative_strength": -14.301695, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.153039, "energy": 15.287339, "activity_lines": [ 9.279333, 9.187818, 9.264603, 9.432381 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }