{ "ticker": { "uuid": "128725f8-ec52-4e11-b382-14da023c4560", "symbol": "LIBD", "name": "Stone Ridge 2065 InflationProtected Longevity Income ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 74.207, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.136, "architecture_energy": 80.799, "architecture_maturity": 10.091, "architecture_confidence": 81.964, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.97, "rotation_up": 8.22, "upward_expansion": 18.82, "deceleration": 37.01, "rotation_down": 81.94, "downward_expansion": 96.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 269.235476, 272.025767, 273.927138, 274.902337 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 269.1061, "trend_reference": 276.330005, "distance_from_trend": -0.026142, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 275.817138, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.024331, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.767781, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.033323, "excess_performance": -0.158948, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.026142, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00598, "read": "Falling" 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"structural_low": 266.791153, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013064, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2025-01-10", "close": 264.691596, "volume": 28400, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-01-17", "close": 268.890346, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-01-24", "close": 271.43328, "volume": 3102, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-01-31", "close": 272.494914, "volume": 451, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-02-07", "close": 277.238728, "volume": 2, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-02-14", "close": 276.771785, "volume": 22, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, 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277.505962, "volume": 22, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "close": 276.154654, "volume": 21, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "close": 277.694364, "volume": 85, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "close": 271.641175, "volume": 20, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, 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] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 277.673314, "volume": 27, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 279.48369, "volume": 16, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 280.256289, "volume": 279, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 275.790392, "volume": 41, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 272.836433, "volume": 60, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 272.66837, "volume": 540, "typical_volume": 74.95, "trend": 277.242141, "fair_value": 276.096299, "relative_strength": -10.147473, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.023844, "energy": 46.094825, "activity_lines": [ 274.803668, 275.840037, 275.946378, 276.562928 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 269.221287, "volume": 161, "typical_volume": 79.9, "trend": 276.967588, "fair_value": 276.011422, "relative_strength": -10.473031, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.733477, "energy": 70.477625, "activity_lines": [ 272.475086, 274.647799, 275.30488, 276.045453 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 266.791153, "volume": 90, "typical_volume": 83.4, "trend": 276.647965, "fair_value": 275.89898, "relative_strength": -11.874945, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.135601, "energy": 84.746892, "activity_lines": [ 270.020619, 273.057716, 274.485883, 275.388909 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 269.1061, "volume": 83, "typical_volume": 86.2, "trend": 276.330005, "fair_value": 275.817138, "relative_strength": -13.767781, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.135971, "energy": 80.799035, "activity_lines": [ 269.235476, 272.025767, 273.927138, 274.902337 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }