{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1289152c-7b65-4890-9cc6-8ab528c6ba22", "symbol": "600620", "name": "Shanghai Tianchen Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.452, "architecture_energy": 62.274, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 93.612, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.38, "rotation_up": 29.57, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.93, "rotation_down": 49.71, "downward_expansion": 83.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.06, 4.085091, 4.485381, 4.939247 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.19, "trend_reference": 5.562667, "distance_from_trend": -0.246764, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.476147, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.35301, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.308484, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.382916, "excess_performance": -0.339712, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.246764, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.116102, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.35301, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.142402, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.283085, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.112384, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.382916, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.433504, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 25387640, "relative_activity": 0.928571, "balance": 0.433504, "dry_up": 1.228334, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080778, "annualized_volatility": 0.289189, "from_high_reference": -0.436828, "from_low_reference": 0.099738 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.562667, "fair_value_reference": 6.476147, "structural_low": 3.81, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.002516, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.007878, "regime_survival": 0.863636, "best_return": 0.140998, "worst_return": -0.2309, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.075281, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.005009, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.457701, "worst_return": -0.369919, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.154013, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.110576, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.338563, "worst_return": -0.374001, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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5.383075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.09, "volume": 41946861, "typical_volume": 26935400.5, "trend": 5.816, "fair_value": 6.636405, "relative_strength": -29.120923, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.127394, "energy": 82.522505, "activity_lines": [ 4.060667, 4.259818, 4.810286, 5.267527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.82, "volume": 39391114, "typical_volume": 27212646.2, "trend": 5.722667, "fair_value": 6.581766, "relative_strength": -33.684144, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.716177, "energy": 70.376573, "activity_lines": [ 3.973333, 4.139455, 4.669095, 5.138753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.08, "volume": 27607704, "typical_volume": 27253241.0, "trend": 5.639667, "fair_value": 6.527967, "relative_strength": -28.860561, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.012013, "energy": 65.524338, "activity_lines": [ 4.002, 4.092909, 4.565952, 5.032774 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.19, "volume": 25387640, "typical_volume": 27340558.85, "trend": 5.562667, "fair_value": 6.476147, "relative_strength": -28.308484, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.451774, "energy": 62.274299, "activity_lines": [ 4.06, 4.085091, 4.485381, 4.939247 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }