{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1291166c-f3eb-44de-ba60-6c55a7f287a6", "symbol": "TXP", "name": "Touchstone Exploration Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -39.308, "architecture_energy": 26.937, "architecture_maturity": 70.737, "architecture_confidence": 77.531, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.81, "rotation_up": 27.26, "upward_expansion": 20.46, "deceleration": 46.39, "rotation_down": 28.1, "downward_expansion": 56.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.140667, 0.138364, 0.14281, 0.152989 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.14, "trend_reference": 0.164, "distance_from_trend": -0.146341, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.47891, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.70767, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -32.932884, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.222222, "excess_performance": -0.342643, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.146341, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037182, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.70767, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00852, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.329329, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02601, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.222222, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.074428, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 183800, "relative_activity": 0.184191, "balance": 0.074428, "dry_up": 0.549418, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.104396, "annualized_volatility": 0.766503, "from_high_reference": -0.5625, "from_low_reference": 0.272727 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.164, "fair_value_reference": 0.47891, "structural_low": 0.12, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 42, "median_return": 0.018247, "positive_rate": 0.547619, "directional_follow_through": 0.452381, "median_excess_return": -0.014609, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.591398, "worst_return": -0.409091, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.016046, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.011801, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.571429, "worst_return": -0.481481, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.071429, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.141693, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.137931, "worst_return": -0.641026, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.312876, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.412258, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.272727, "worst_return": -0.674419, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-02-17", "end": "2023-05-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.057143, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-05-26", "end": "2023-06-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.185567, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-06-30", "end": "2023-07-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.235849, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-07-21", "end": "2023-09-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.037879, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-09-08", "end": "2023-09-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.170732, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-10-06", "end": "2023-11-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.104167, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-11-10", "end": "2024-03-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.031915, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.168539, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.180556, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-12-06", 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"activity_lines": [ 0.136, 0.135818, 0.150952, 0.159763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.13, "volume": 1189500, "typical_volume": 1252330.0, "trend": 0.166, "fair_value": 0.502821, "relative_strength": -39.094959, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.011419, "energy": 57.909931, "activity_lines": [ 0.134667, 0.134182, 0.147619, 0.157419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.15, "volume": 332500, "typical_volume": 1088360.0, "trend": 0.166333, "fair_value": 0.495321, "relative_strength": -28.669586, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.554566, "energy": 31.838617, "activity_lines": [ 0.14, 0.136909, 0.146333, 0.156387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.14, "volume": 487200, "typical_volume": 1024925.0, "trend": 0.166333, "fair_value": 0.486987, "relative_strength": -31.910803, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.451622, "energy": 28.246036, "activity_lines": [ 0.140667, 0.137636, 0.144381, 0.154688 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.14, "volume": 183800, "typical_volume": 997875.0, "trend": 0.164, "fair_value": 0.47891, "relative_strength": -32.932884, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.307736, "energy": 26.936707, "activity_lines": [ 0.140667, 0.138364, 0.14281, 0.152989 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }