{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1297e580-97a4-4cb1-80c9-0d812d2fd742", "symbol": "603639", "name": "Hailir Pesticides and Chemicals Group Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.546, "architecture_energy": 50.087, "architecture_maturity": 88.281, "architecture_confidence": 95.26, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.38, "rotation_up": 27.84, "upward_expansion": 22.11, "deceleration": 46.74, "rotation_down": 40.1, "downward_expansion": 69.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.390458, 10.318043, 10.841971, 11.510571 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 10.54, "trend_reference": 12.312839, "distance_from_trend": -0.143983, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.143814, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.198102, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.357545, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.262421, "excess_performance": -0.219217, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.143983, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064042, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.198102, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.10782, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.183575, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006386, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.262421, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.304883, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9181697, "relative_activity": 0.751783, "balance": 0.304883, "dry_up": 0.856822, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053143, "annualized_volatility": 0.277917, "from_high_reference": -0.314694, "from_low_reference": 0.083946 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.312839, "fair_value_reference": 13.143814, "structural_low": 9.723728, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.004138, "positive_rate": 0.541667, "directional_follow_through": 0.458333, "median_excess_return": 0.003526, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.21608, "worst_return": -0.195199, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.069467, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.013228, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.289575, "worst_return": -0.176574, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.01146, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.017503, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.300502, "worst_return": -0.162359, "sufficient": true 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{ "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.096799, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.112834, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019652, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.042451, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.040874, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": 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10.376142, 11.246378, 11.904604 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.1, "volume": 12091278, "typical_volume": 12955189.65, "trend": 12.453505, "fair_value": 13.224828, "relative_strength": -20.421542, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.391227, "energy": 71.908999, "activity_lines": [ 10.099125, 10.274776, 11.060592, 11.747238 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.63, "volume": 12720677, "typical_volume": 12684475.3, "trend": 12.384839, "fair_value": 13.185319, "relative_strength": -16.052919, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.701786, "energy": 60.659637, "activity_lines": [ 10.286115, 10.297409, 10.946472, 11.629593 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.54, "volume": 9181697, "typical_volume": 12213226.25, "trend": 12.312839, "fair_value": 13.143814, "relative_strength": -18.357545, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.546002, "energy": 50.086711, "activity_lines": [ 10.390458, 10.318043, 10.841971, 11.510571 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }