{ "ticker": { "uuid": "12997e79-511c-49cc-93a8-5479d99a6a0a", "symbol": "BKSY", "name": "Blacksky Technology Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 59.992, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -22.872, "architecture_energy": 27.202, "architecture_maturity": 8.476, "architecture_confidence": 49.823, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.42, "rotation_up": 19.36, "upward_expansion": 16.13, "deceleration": 61.28, "rotation_down": 59.31, "downward_expansion": 45.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.807333, 25.492182, 30.103857, 30.061183 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 29.16, "trend_reference": 29.090667, "distance_from_trend": 0.002383, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.505379, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.880638, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.191146, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.276149, "excess_performance": 0.150524, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.002383, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.108202, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.880638, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.917808, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.041911, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.605182, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.276149, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.507786, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5727658, "relative_activity": 0.598509, "balance": 0.507786, "dry_up": 0.617452, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.239792, "annualized_volatility": 1.006967, "from_high_reference": -0.448563, "from_low_reference": 1.349718 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.090667, "fair_value_reference": 15.505379, "structural_low": 17.52, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.027971, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.022595, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.298091, "worst_return": -0.125885, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.393625, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.311166, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 2.154185, "worst_return": 0.026667, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.364491, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.249487, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 2.74743, "worst_return": 0.0, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.22, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.435852, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 3.524229, "worst_return": -0.523504, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.149016, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.091848, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.696035, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.090448, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.972452, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.200967, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.140625, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.48315, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.189824, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.43013, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.206795, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.549799, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.267135, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.314105, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 10.96, "volume": 3737244, "typical_volume": 6043522.95, "trend": 13.098667, "fair_value": 44.630682, "relative_strength": -24.601855, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.024457, "energy": 23.526233, 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"close": 25.02, "volume": 5939002, "typical_volume": 9783554.05, "trend": 28.721667, "fair_value": 15.256854, "relative_strength": -8.421017, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.125815, "energy": 32.575538, "activity_lines": [ 26.753333, 31.361636, 33.099857, 31.315097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.19, "volume": 7616191, "typical_volume": 9825269.25, "trend": 28.819667, "fair_value": 15.300636, "relative_strength": -17.13867, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.968502, "energy": 48.113632, "activity_lines": [ 24.878667, 29.062182, 32.185286, 30.893699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.57, "volume": 5117747, "typical_volume": 9650814.15, "trend": 28.895, "fair_value": 15.340444, "relative_strength": -18.883381, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.647566, "energy": 53.269027, "activity_lines": [ 23.479333, 26.963818, 31.195762, 30.425978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.05, "volume": 5174145, "typical_volume": 9654156.05, "trend": 28.969333, "fair_value": 15.399482, "relative_strength": -14.266028, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.061988, "energy": 48.564544, "activity_lines": [ 23.068, 25.446909, 30.357476, 30.048882 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.16, "volume": 5727658, "typical_volume": 9569874.3, "trend": 29.090667, "fair_value": 15.505379, "relative_strength": 4.191146, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.872473, "energy": 27.201527, "activity_lines": [ 24.807333, 25.492182, 30.103857, 30.061183 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }