{ "ticker": { "uuid": "12a8be37-6409-4d8b-959c-5f451d7cb0e6", "symbol": "NTG", "name": "Nordic Technology Group AS", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 77.491, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -26.658, "architecture_energy": 15.978, "architecture_maturity": 30.279, "architecture_confidence": 56.671, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.52, "rotation_up": 32.09, "upward_expansion": 12.67, "deceleration": 48.27, "rotation_down": 40.11, "downward_expansion": 45.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.647333, 1.652545, 1.698333, 1.726151 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.49, "trend_reference": 1.709667, "distance_from_trend": -0.128485, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.353365, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.366864, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.456231, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.09697, "excess_performance": -0.221963, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.128485, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034698, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.366864, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043809, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.094562, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.309132, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.09697, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.056777, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20525, "relative_activity": 0.272264, "balance": 2.056777, "dry_up": 0.890114, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.220444, "annualized_volatility": 1.467613, "from_high_reference": -0.363248, "from_low_reference": 1.128571 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.709667, "fair_value_reference": 2.353365, "structural_low": 1.1, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.029936, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.442308, "worst_return": -0.126667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.134078, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.184, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.259615, "worst_return": -0.193548, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.214547, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.073341, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.730769, "worst_return": -0.301676, "sufficient": false }, 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.264706, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.04, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.60687, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.442308, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.252747, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.458333, 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2.476955, "relative_strength": -2.114745, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.028476, "energy": 27.460892, "activity_lines": [ 1.622, 1.670182, 1.750143, 1.726645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.79, "volume": 212290, "typical_volume": 78808.0, "trend": 1.664333, "fair_value": 2.452853, "relative_strength": 16.620426, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.371801, "energy": 13.280111, "activity_lines": [ 1.686, 1.682364, 1.750952, 1.735398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.6, "volume": 93801, "typical_volume": 82380.45, "trend": 1.672333, "fair_value": 2.427532, "relative_strength": 2.344847, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -2.017263, "energy": 5.634539, "activity_lines": [ 1.667333, 1.661455, 1.733476, 1.731247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.69, "volume": 153184, "typical_volume": 89431.1, "trend": 1.683333, "fair_value": 2.403109, "relative_strength": 4.913796, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -4.924277, "energy": 6.386413, "activity_lines": [ 1.661333, 1.660545, 1.72619, 1.732387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.8, "volume": 900, "typical_volume": 80618.7, "trend": 1.703333, "fair_value": 2.379391, "relative_strength": 10.282589, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 3.551481, "energy": 4.999421, "activity_lines": [ 1.709333, 1.683818, 1.726571, 1.739914 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.49, "volume": 20525, "typical_volume": 75386.4, "trend": 1.709667, "fair_value": 2.353365, "relative_strength": -9.456231, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.658124, "energy": 15.978226, "activity_lines": [ 1.647333, 1.652545, 1.698333, 1.726151 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }