{ "ticker": { "uuid": "12aa58d4-b4ed-433a-ab3a-40276b0d1679", "symbol": "CAMB3", "name": "Cambuci S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 89.796, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -38.295, "architecture_energy": 51.812, "architecture_maturity": 39.752, "architecture_confidence": 81.165, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.87, "rotation_up": 17.78, "upward_expansion": 26.55, "deceleration": 47.54, "rotation_down": 64.39, "downward_expansion": 49.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.031333, 9.212364, 9.396548, 9.375357 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 8.6, "trend_reference": 9.295673, "distance_from_trend": -0.074838, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.893505, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.033002, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.439831, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.041846, "excess_performance": 0.015202, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.074838, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010849, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.033002, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.159863, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.094398, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025579, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.041846, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.593717, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 110600, "relative_activity": 1.469865, "balance": 0.593717, "dry_up": 0.847232, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054541, "annualized_volatility": 0.195281, "from_high_reference": -0.172281, "from_low_reference": 0.049253 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.295673, "fair_value_reference": 8.893505, "structural_low": 8.47, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.004712, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.016004, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.173057, "worst_return": -0.153116, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.013004, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.019483, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.088521, "worst_return": -0.193328, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.161643, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.116501, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.538882, "worst_return": -0.153996, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.001783, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.100877, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.039661, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.014952, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.046371, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": 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9.427736 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.19, "volume": 21700, "typical_volume": 86680.0, "trend": 9.310974, "fair_value": 8.88247, "relative_strength": -4.759655, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.64018, "energy": 21.149755, "activity_lines": [ 9.290667, 9.404182, 9.493629, 9.41982 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.33, "volume": 47800, "typical_volume": 85465.0, "trend": 9.308193, "fair_value": 8.891343, "relative_strength": -5.148748, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.794904, "energy": 20.391348, "activity_lines": [ 9.276667, 9.370364, 9.481102, 9.421047 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.6, "volume": 110600, "typical_volume": 75245.0, "trend": 9.295673, "fair_value": 8.893505, "relative_strength": -9.439831, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.295297, "energy": 51.811813, "activity_lines": [ 9.031333, 9.212364, 9.396548, 9.375357 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }