{ "ticker": { "uuid": "12ada5b8-8f03-4727-b35f-c5f42841579c", "symbol": "EUMV", "name": "Ossiam Europe ESG Machine Learning ETF UCITS 1C (EUR)", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.839, "architecture_energy": 89.13, "architecture_maturity": 35.512, "architecture_confidence": 60.376, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.1, "rotation_up": 81.61, "upward_expansion": 96.18, "deceleration": 41.93, "rotation_down": 9.78, "downward_expansion": 20.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 309.993325, 307.669085, 305.016902, 302.642364 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 312.649994, "trend_reference": 299.503333, "distance_from_trend": 0.043895, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 261.948077, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.193557, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.147498, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.070169, "excess_performance": -0.100722, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.043895, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028296, "read": "Rising" 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281.649994, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.000615, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.001791, "regime_survival": 0.71875, "best_return": 0.049372, "worst_return": -0.060927, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.014316, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.032706, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.047804, "worst_return": -0.063392, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.049527, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.042635, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.0835, "worst_return": -0.076581, 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258.919552, "relative_strength": -11.038677, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.67151, "energy": 61.222121, "activity_lines": [ 303.493333, 302.705455, 300.832145, 298.858173 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 303.75, "volume": 31, "typical_volume": 48.3, "trend": 296.171667, "fair_value": 259.496154, "relative_strength": -10.000109, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.805433, "energy": 40.192773, "activity_lines": [ 303.6, 303.002727, 301.265478, 299.398711 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 308.899994, "volume": 15, "typical_volume": 47.15, "trend": 297.030001, "fair_value": 260.0875, "relative_strength": -6.885527, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.09923, "energy": 69.475253, "activity_lines": [ 305.243331, 304.224544, 302.159763, 300.219893 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 309.299988, "volume": 80, "typical_volume": 50.1, "trend": 297.895, "fair_value": 260.671475, "relative_strength": -6.344087, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.873943, "energy": 73.446117, "activity_lines": [ 306.856661, 305.35636, 303.077142, 301.011505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 309.299988, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 43.95, "trend": 298.776666, "fair_value": 261.298398, "relative_strength": -6.697548, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.8091, "energy": 77.24696, "activity_lines": [ 308.033325, 306.25454, 303.929284, 301.747311 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 312.649994, "volume": 12, "typical_volume": 44.55, "trend": 299.503333, "fair_value": 261.948077, "relative_strength": -8.147498, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.839088, "energy": 89.13002, "activity_lines": [ 309.993325, 307.669085, 305.016902, 302.642364 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }