{ "ticker": { "uuid": "12b0281e-43bd-4336-ae46-45e4e53e1ad6", "symbol": "300933", "name": "Sinostar Cable Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.487, "architecture_energy": 39.999, "architecture_maturity": 83.159, "architecture_confidence": 63.162, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.25, "rotation_up": 23.54, "upward_expansion": 12.31, "deceleration": 66.78, "rotation_down": 46.1, "downward_expansion": 71.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.364667, 6.318909, 6.826762, 7.242323 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 6.9, "trend_reference": 7.800667, "distance_from_trend": -0.11546, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.51293, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.081583, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.101532, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.220339, "excess_performance": -0.227739, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.11546, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083497, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.081583, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.207871, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.191015, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022813, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.220339, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.314869, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 139226228, "relative_activity": 2.114457, "balance": 1.314869, "dry_up": 1.766592, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.115608, "annualized_volatility": 0.435573, "from_high_reference": -0.331395, "from_low_reference": 0.319312 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.800667, "fair_value_reference": 7.51293, "structural_low": 5.23, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.015848, "positive_rate": 0.588235, "directional_follow_through": 0.411765, "median_excess_return": 0.001628, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.246117, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.036234, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.003976, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.197158, "worst_return": -0.160714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.082887, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.057989, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.333925, "worst_return": 0.016066, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.389262, "energy": 77.502641, "activity_lines": [ 6.181333, 6.513455, 7.137857, 7.548344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.69, "volume": 86831405, "typical_volume": 62175870.4, "trend": 7.914333, "fair_value": 7.527478, "relative_strength": -31.722474, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.941094, "energy": 64.303096, "activity_lines": [ 5.998, 6.282909, 6.956857, 7.399828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.42, "volume": 138219959, "typical_volume": 62990622.5, "trend": 7.847, "fair_value": 7.518919, "relative_strength": -21.253873, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.114844, "energy": 52.299782, "activity_lines": [ 6.114, 6.237636, 6.862714, 7.303419 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.9, "volume": 139226228, "typical_volume": 65844921.65, "trend": 7.800667, "fair_value": 7.51293, "relative_strength": -19.101532, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.487375, "energy": 39.99901, "activity_lines": [ 6.364667, 6.318909, 6.826762, 7.242323 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }