{ "ticker": { "uuid": "12b3d9d7-5297-4e65-a322-aca9635d01a8", "symbol": "XMAG", "name": "DEFIANCE LARGE CAP EX-MAG 7 ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 75.002, "architecture_energy": 51.738, "architecture_maturity": 85.296, "architecture_confidence": 55.104, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.33, "rotation_up": 46.97, "upward_expansion": 74.6, "deceleration": 71.33, "rotation_down": 28.62, "downward_expansion": 12.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.659333, 25.615509, 25.199387, 24.663536 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 26.17, "trend_reference": 24.049387, "distance_from_trend": 0.088177, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.825741, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.199043, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.287083, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.124141, "excess_performance": -0.063313, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.088177, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045207, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.199043, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057984, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.012871, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.073873, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.124141, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.190991, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 306487, "relative_activity": 0.971597, "balance": 2.190991, "dry_up": 1.498181, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02561, "annualized_volatility": 0.112733, "from_high_reference": -0.003048, "from_low_reference": 0.242035 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.049387, "fair_value_reference": 21.825741, "structural_low": 21.62, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.022425, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.021636, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.046921, "worst_return": -0.009913, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.057702, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.036048, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.057702, "worst_return": 0.057702, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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24.804108, 24.316436 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.41, "volume": 342033, "typical_volume": 316656.85, "trend": 23.852387, "fair_value": 21.740105, "relative_strength": 1.190151, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.234621, "energy": 53.624104, "activity_lines": [ 25.512733, 25.478378, 24.926546, 24.422704 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.36, "volume": 208292, "typical_volume": 313515.2, "trend": 23.94472, "fair_value": 21.779029, "relative_strength": 0.492092, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.17044, "energy": 42.751383, "activity_lines": [ 25.440887, 25.479238, 25.031514, 24.519969 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.17, "volume": 306487, "typical_volume": 315446.55, "trend": 24.049387, "fair_value": 21.825741, "relative_strength": -1.287083, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.002318, "energy": 51.737953, "activity_lines": [ 25.659333, 25.615509, 25.199387, 24.663536 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }