{ "ticker": { "uuid": "12b65787-cc84-4700-a929-7eb66eac0f05", "symbol": "002142", "name": "Bank of Ningbo Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 60.646, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 38.655, "architecture_energy": 31.504, "architecture_maturity": 17.212, "architecture_confidence": 58.376, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.92, "rotation_up": 61.76, "upward_expansion": 67.04, "deceleration": 61.44, "rotation_down": 12.51, "downward_expansion": 12.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.605287, 31.102329, 31.117154, 31.093562 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 31.48, "trend_reference": 30.915947, "distance_from_trend": 0.018245, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.066196, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.255875, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.098249, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.017124, "excess_performance": 0.009725, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.018245, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028552, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.255875, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053701, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.030982, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.113867, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.017124, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.783529, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 159491975, "relative_activity": 1.461988, "balance": 0.783529, "dry_up": 1.831431, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04345, "annualized_volatility": 0.194975, "from_high_reference": -0.070838, "from_low_reference": 0.228016 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.915947, "fair_value_reference": 25.066196, "structural_low": 29.256226, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.005701, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.008123, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.161204, "worst_return": -0.125136, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.049732, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.015512, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.079919, "worst_return": -0.141417, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.02843, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.049261, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.209463, "worst_return": -0.317128, "sufficient": true }, { 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"modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 1.376387, "energy": 12.226606, "activity_lines": [ 30.427417, 30.552789, 30.897417, 30.878843 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32.009998, "volume": 225481946, "typical_volume": 102866778.15, "trend": 30.673614, "fair_value": 24.958261, "relative_strength": 8.349462, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.010149, "energy": 16.804264, "activity_lines": [ 31.021782, 30.782817, 30.993758, 30.97205 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.879999, "volume": 180734704, "typical_volume": 107342947.6, "trend": 30.802947, "fair_value": 25.01181, "relative_strength": 9.677469, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.007913, "energy": 28.264533, "activity_lines": [ 31.433954, 30.986118, 31.076241, 31.049882 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.48, "volume": 159491975, "typical_volume": 109092524.25, "trend": 30.915947, "fair_value": 25.066196, "relative_strength": 3.098249, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.654551, "energy": 31.503875, "activity_lines": [ 31.605287, 31.102329, 31.117154, 31.093562 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }