{ "ticker": { "uuid": "12ba2da8-8e68-4a4c-b530-f78099bff314", "symbol": "600448", "name": "Huafang Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.618, "architecture_energy": 47.558, "architecture_maturity": 45.654, "architecture_confidence": 93.386, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.17, "rotation_up": 24.08, "upward_expansion": 7.22, "deceleration": 58.68, "rotation_down": 52.58, "downward_expansion": 80.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.614, 2.627636, 2.837286, 2.966387 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.75, "trend_reference": 3.108, "distance_from_trend": -0.115187, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.961667, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.071469, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.599339, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.171687, "excess_performance": -0.128483, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.115187, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06676, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.071469, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.278842, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.145993, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.091216, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.171687, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.260406, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 70017983, "relative_activity": 0.833203, "balance": 0.260406, "dry_up": 0.966659, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.096783, "annualized_volatility": 0.393717, "from_high_reference": -0.3309, "from_low_reference": 0.185345 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.108, "fair_value_reference": 2.961667, "structural_low": 2.32, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.024691, "positive_rate": 0.56, "directional_follow_through": 0.44, "median_excess_return": 0.011116, "regime_survival": 0.72, "best_return": 0.173267, "worst_return": -0.191667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.020249, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.004815, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.510101, "worst_return": -0.142857, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.06107, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.050586, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.454545, "worst_return": -0.199377, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.148, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.084249, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.100402, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003717, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.104061, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": 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"volume": 93956202, "typical_volume": 89077374.8, "trend": 3.167333, "fair_value": 2.969423, "relative_strength": -18.703244, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.460571, "energy": 79.677877, "activity_lines": [ 2.599333, 2.733273, 2.970286, 3.072129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.4, "volume": 90858177, "typical_volume": 87981600.8, "trend": 3.140333, "fair_value": 2.965577, "relative_strength": -23.925014, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.967348, "energy": 79.432261, "activity_lines": [ 2.526, 2.645273, 2.902762, 3.022624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.64, "volume": 70099296, "typical_volume": 86738103.25, "trend": 3.121333, "fair_value": 2.963526, "relative_strength": -16.189039, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.76271, "energy": 59.815713, "activity_lines": [ 2.554, 2.620364, 2.862857, 2.990344 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.75, "volume": 70017983, "typical_volume": 84034698.25, "trend": 3.108, "fair_value": 2.961667, "relative_strength": -14.599339, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.618111, "energy": 47.557719, "activity_lines": [ 2.614, 2.627636, 2.837286, 2.966387 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }