{ "ticker": { "uuid": "12be1c22-aef1-4dc0-bf1c-098b376e374d", "symbol": "BZUN", "name": "Baozun Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 91.534, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 59.061, "architecture_energy": 25.284, "architecture_maturity": 29.674, "architecture_confidence": 56.59, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.79, "rotation_up": 44.28, "upward_expansion": 70.85, "deceleration": 80.48, "rotation_down": 26.9, "downward_expansion": 11.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.772, 2.752364, 2.714548, 2.668871 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2.96, "trend_reference": 2.6415, "distance_from_trend": 0.120575, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.842564, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.041313, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.566574, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.104478, "excess_performance": -0.082976, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.120575, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017604, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.041313, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.117859, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.115666, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.106852, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.104478, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.830741, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1025244, "relative_activity": 0.63303, "balance": 1.830741, "dry_up": 0.783245, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.09441, "annualized_volatility": 0.627018, "from_high_reference": -0.393443, "from_low_reference": 0.429952 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.6415, "fair_value_reference": 2.842564, "structural_low": 2.07, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.052365, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.058658, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.246269, "worst_return": -0.257913, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.090909, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.167055, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.264, "worst_return": -0.337851, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.256648, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.366855, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.149091, "worst_return": -0.501452, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.463357, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.701664, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.167401, "worst_return": -0.564376, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.230321, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.247934, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.386831, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.349333, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.251101, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.127027, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.177049, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.298851, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.332402, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.209135, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.205556, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.078689, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.038462, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.060932, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3.79, "volume": 1909310, "typical_volume": 2030301.6, "trend": 5.091333, "fair_value": 18.158462, "relative_strength": -40.552761, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", 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1123483, "typical_volume": 1593739.05, "trend": 2.6435, "fair_value": 2.879295, "relative_strength": -22.814544, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.953644, "energy": 16.763051, "activity_lines": [ 2.705333, 2.702, 2.669667, 2.64357 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.48, "volume": 1269415, "typical_volume": 1590218.15, "trend": 2.636167, "fair_value": 2.862756, "relative_strength": -22.071315, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.961594, "energy": 10.364274, "activity_lines": [ 2.619333, 2.668545, 2.658071, 2.633022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.87, "volume": 1655974, "typical_volume": 1636952.8, "trend": 2.638167, "fair_value": 2.850705, "relative_strength": -10.088355, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.859343, "energy": 18.925837, "activity_lines": [ 2.684, 2.705636, 2.683143, 2.648108 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.96, "volume": 1025244, "typical_volume": 1619581.25, "trend": 2.6415, "fair_value": 2.842564, "relative_strength": -11.566574, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.061025, "energy": 25.283906, "activity_lines": [ 2.772, 2.752364, 2.714548, 2.668871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }