{ "ticker": { "uuid": "12c0dc58-5ed0-446a-ab55-38668d98a32d", "symbol": "CAPU", "name": "Ossiam Shiller Barclays Cape US Sector Value TR 1C (EUR)", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 67.003, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.849, "architecture_energy": 87.825, "architecture_maturity": 18.71, "architecture_confidence": 67.395, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.23, "rotation_up": 81.71, "upward_expansion": 95.74, "deceleration": 43.11, "rotation_down": 9.69, "downward_expansion": 20.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 1492.986686, 1477.520015, 1450.466677, 1436.736346 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1508.400024, "trend_reference": 1424.52666, "distance_from_trend": 0.058878, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1323.360402, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.139826, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.196258, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.064352, "excess_performance": 0.011041, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.058878, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018324, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.139826, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050603, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.001963, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005146, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.064352, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.753727, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1462, "relative_activity": 1.113014, "balance": 0.753727, "dry_up": 2.152944, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016247, "annualized_volatility": 0.092516, "from_high_reference": -0.00724, "from_low_reference": 0.119656 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1424.52666, "fair_value_reference": 1323.360402, "structural_low": 1350.400024, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 42, "median_return": 0.009253, "positive_rate": 0.595238, "directional_follow_through": 0.595238, "median_excess_return": 0.002633, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.060493, "worst_return": -0.082516, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.024052, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.010319, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.150655, "worst_return": -0.123757, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.02624, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.008864, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.1837, "worst_return": -0.104635, "sufficient": true }, { 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"activity_lines": [ 1480.933358, 1460.560014, 1436.093341, 1427.046021 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1482.0, "volume": 8106, "typical_volume": 1279.95, "trend": 1421.786658, "fair_value": 1320.810402, "relative_strength": 0.807602, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.436561, "energy": 85.715789, "activity_lines": [ 1483.666683, 1467.276376, 1442.166674, 1431.148387 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1508.400024, "volume": 1462, "typical_volume": 1313.55, "trend": 1424.52666, "fair_value": 1323.360402, "relative_strength": 0.196258, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.848692, "energy": 87.825475, "activity_lines": [ 1492.986686, 1477.520015, 1450.466677, 1436.736346 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }