{ "ticker": { "uuid": "12c4d3bb-1f1e-4579-aa88-23ea0c3ab9cd", "symbol": "688508", "name": "Wuxi Chipown Micro-electronics limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 0.057, "architecture_energy": 13.819, "architecture_maturity": 55.46, "architecture_confidence": 45.307, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.43, "rotation_up": 21.0, "upward_expansion": 18.49, "deceleration": 64.52, "rotation_down": 50.96, "downward_expansion": 38.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 73.871333, 77.027863, 79.7958, 77.180865 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 86.940002, "trend_reference": 73.876748, "distance_from_trend": 0.176825, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 53.286812, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.631548, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 26.505795, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.181571, "excess_performance": 0.224775, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.176825, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.10023, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.631548, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058745, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.265058, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062369, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.181571, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.439981, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 47216025, "relative_activity": 1.432464, "balance": 3.439981, "dry_up": 1.464759, "accumulation_observations": 7, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.204221, "annualized_volatility": 0.857941, "from_high_reference": -0.170223, "from_low_reference": 0.597575 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 73.876748, "fair_value_reference": 53.286812, "structural_low": 54.869999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.091362, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.061156, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.250574, "worst_return": -0.24314, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.156427, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.093809, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.257719, "worst_return": -0.173471, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.272374, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.21544, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.465193, "worst_return": -0.183479, "sufficient": false }, { 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"gate": "up", "direction": 5.906613, "energy": 10.608787, "activity_lines": [ 78.062667, 82.319359, 80.62693, 77.098107 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 67.690002, "volume": 52553514, "typical_volume": 29779215.55, "trend": 72.877748, "fair_value": 53.188524, "relative_strength": 2.447957, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.372697, "energy": 13.578176, "activity_lines": [ 73.441334, 79.122021, 79.839585, 76.78451 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 65.089996, "volume": 50411068, "typical_volume": 31326538.9, "trend": 73.008748, "fair_value": 53.162442, "relative_strength": -2.015261, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.972523, "energy": 25.614701, "activity_lines": [ 69.447333, 75.857781, 78.782192, 76.282075 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 86.940002, "volume": 47216025, "typical_volume": 32961413.75, "trend": 73.876748, "fair_value": 53.286812, "relative_strength": 26.505795, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 0.057297, "energy": 13.81929, "activity_lines": [ 73.871333, 77.027863, 79.7958, 77.180865 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }