{ "ticker": { "uuid": "12c83e22-8c00-46f0-bfa1-d5fb2fafbea3", "symbol": "LVO", "name": "Amundi S&P 500 VIX Futures Enhanced Roll UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -77.411, "architecture_energy": 64.634, "architecture_maturity": 18.428, "architecture_confidence": 94.167, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.49, "rotation_up": 22.66, "upward_expansion": 11.24, "deceleration": 47.89, "rotation_down": 61.44, "downward_expansion": 84.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.68384, 0.690678, 0.713088, 0.730622 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.6694, "trend_reference": 0.74133, "distance_from_trend": -0.097028, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.017198, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.341918, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.126624, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.072725, "excess_performance": -0.243616, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.097028, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027921, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.341918, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02075, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.251266, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067473, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.072725, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.614184, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1984365, "relative_activity": 0.902284, "balance": 0.614184, "dry_up": 0.645031, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036221, "annualized_volatility": 0.254369, "from_high_reference": -0.251063, "from_low_reference": 0.006465 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.74133, "fair_value_reference": 1.017198, "structural_low": 0.6651, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 47, "median_return": -0.028114, "positive_rate": 0.425532, "directional_follow_through": 0.574468, "median_excess_return": -0.028679, "regime_survival": 0.893617, "best_return": 0.170654, "worst_return": -0.269519, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.108523, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.148037, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.24393, "worst_return": -0.226812, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.175582, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.216407, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.122517, "worst_return": -0.314865, "sufficient": true }, { 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"label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.088702, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.037992, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.044715, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.117018, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.027138, 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"Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.967561, "energy": 84.762173, "activity_lines": [ 0.6909, 0.706258, 0.732537, 0.74196 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.6962, "volume": 972394, "typical_volume": 3321708.75, "trend": 0.74363, "fair_value": 1.029447, "relative_strength": -20.816641, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.211417, "energy": 81.713462, "activity_lines": [ 0.691533, 0.701858, 0.726649, 0.738883 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.6889, "volume": 1609734, "typical_volume": 2524413.0, "trend": 0.74271, "fair_value": 1.023521, "relative_strength": -21.392464, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.260962, "energy": 73.866656, "activity_lines": [ 0.690233, 0.697433, 0.720427, 0.735352 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.6694, "volume": 1984365, "typical_volume": 2199269.35, "trend": 0.74133, "fair_value": 1.017198, "relative_strength": -25.126624, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.410877, "energy": 64.633894, "activity_lines": [ 0.68384, 0.690678, 0.713088, 0.730622 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }