{ "ticker": { "uuid": "12ca531a-93be-4d79-beb8-9e8b043e6ab8", "symbol": "1417", "name": "Carnival Industrial Corporation", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 54.293, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -35.152, "architecture_energy": 21.923, "architecture_maturity": 16.712, "architecture_confidence": 72.315, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.24, "rotation_up": 15.55, "upward_expansion": 9.82, "deceleration": 55.28, "rotation_down": 49.28, "downward_expansion": 66.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.314133, 8.380963, 8.352611, 8.406605 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 8.31, "trend_reference": 8.464581, "distance_from_trend": -0.018262, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.588538, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.13334, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -29.765938, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.025856, "excess_performance": -0.467228, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.018262, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008714, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.13334, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060293, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.297659, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048853, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.025856, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.491362, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 532078, "relative_activity": 0.631534, "balance": 1.491362, "dry_up": 0.807589, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040941, "annualized_volatility": 0.192318, "from_high_reference": -0.097787, "from_low_reference": 0.075847 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.464581, "fair_value_reference": 9.588538, "structural_low": 7.772727, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.025814, "positive_rate": 0.277778, "directional_follow_through": 0.277778, "median_excess_return": -0.015953, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.099509, "worst_return": -0.066148, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.042348, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.093212, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.315069, "worst_return": -0.216312, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.112176, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.187389, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.219178, "worst_return": -0.265781, 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"active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.001179, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022836, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.066505, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.004571, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.042045, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": 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"2026-07-31", "close": 8.22, "volume": 693238, "typical_volume": 943074.2, "trend": 8.485468, "fair_value": 9.644954, "relative_strength": -27.728406, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.822406, "energy": 12.057898, "activity_lines": [ 8.42564, 8.406155, 8.381089, 8.43035 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.28, "volume": 531337, "typical_volume": 889294.8, "trend": 8.472582, "fair_value": 9.61665, "relative_strength": -28.274952, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.264647, "energy": 17.7342, "activity_lines": [ 8.345523, 8.39403, 8.364316, 8.417094 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 8.31, "volume": 532078, "typical_volume": 842517.1, "trend": 8.464581, "fair_value": 9.588538, "relative_strength": -29.765938, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.151575, "energy": 21.922765, "activity_lines": [ 8.314133, 8.380963, 8.352611, 8.406605 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }