{ "ticker": { "uuid": "12cc0014-24c0-4c34-8395-b12c129667cf", "symbol": "CA", "name": "Carrefour SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 83.089, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 21.1, "architecture_energy": 10.7, "architecture_maturity": 45.795, "architecture_confidence": 81.438, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.41, "rotation_up": 27.14, "upward_expansion": 49.61, "deceleration": 81.44, "rotation_down": 25.99, "downward_expansion": 25.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.911781, 15.995691, 16.013253, 15.763647 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 15.77, "trend_reference": 15.282726, "distance_from_trend": 0.031884, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.127706, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.201276, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.739585, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.125756, "excess_performance": 0.072444, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.031884, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.072924, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.201276, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047534, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.047396, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.176176, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.125756, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.818407, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9533098, "relative_activity": 1.097281, "balance": 0.818407, "dry_up": 1.219252, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044504, "annualized_volatility": 0.232218, "from_high_reference": -0.058507, "from_low_reference": 0.400123 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.282726, "fair_value_reference": 13.127706, "structural_low": 13.409358, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.031016, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.033267, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.039502, "worst_return": -0.063795, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.019572, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.024254, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.155892, "worst_return": -0.099509, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.011654, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.016945, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.125756, "worst_return": -0.098964, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"amber", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.050102, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.009648, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.033835, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.036956, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.118114, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.087541, "active": false }, { 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16.203578, 16.012387, 15.643214 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.500025, "volume": 14552536, "typical_volume": 9031241.8, "trend": 15.125425, "fair_value": 13.115088, "relative_strength": 7.883182, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.153124, "energy": 19.996923, "activity_lines": [ 16.03857, 16.080499, 15.994652, 15.672061 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.98, "volume": 9818696, "typical_volume": 9014231.85, "trend": 15.204982, "fair_value": 13.121965, "relative_strength": 9.020477, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.641849, "energy": 20.72624, "activity_lines": [ 16.003804, 16.0559, 16.017187, 15.727195 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.77, "volume": 9533098, "typical_volume": 8687926.6, "trend": 15.282726, "fair_value": 13.127706, "relative_strength": 4.739585, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.100178, "energy": 10.700044, "activity_lines": [ 15.911781, 15.995691, 16.013253, 15.763647 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }