{ "ticker": { "uuid": "12d14a15-9ee0-41cd-82f2-5cb17f3f11db", "symbol": "SGE", "name": "Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 anonyme", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 86.479, "architecture_energy": 86.648, "architecture_maturity": 30.774, "architecture_confidence": 86.862, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.21, "rotation_up": 75.74, "upward_expansion": 92.85, "deceleration": 45.45, "rotation_down": 12.46, "downward_expansion": 19.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 80.004668, 78.169091, 74.876513, 72.780663 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 83.980003, "trend_reference": 70.88828, "distance_from_trend": 0.184681, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 40.486075, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.074294, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 18.945012, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.172405, "excess_performance": 0.107765, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.184681, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.07296, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.074294, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.182848, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.18945, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043536, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.172405, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.964277, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22489, "relative_activity": 1.226, "balance": 3.964277, "dry_up": 1.437874, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043266, "annualized_volatility": 0.370759, "from_high_reference": -0.009436, "from_low_reference": 0.690798 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 70.88828, "fair_value_reference": 40.486075, "structural_low": 58.456211, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 0.013981, "positive_rate": 0.558824, "directional_follow_through": 0.558824, "median_excess_return": 0.020051, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.257843, "worst_return": -0.198976, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.080897, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": 0.098826, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.621965, "worst_return": -0.243402, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.063982, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.000784, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.946674, "worst_return": -0.256872, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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17058.75, "trend": 69.968892, "fair_value": 39.726615, "relative_strength": 16.033205, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.879173, "energy": 51.712397, "activity_lines": [ 75.858001, 75.247159, 72.562343, 71.166873 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 81.38, "volume": 45362, "typical_volume": 18176.65, "trend": 70.377364, "fair_value": 40.098425, "relative_strength": 19.107094, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.887684, "energy": 58.271176, "activity_lines": [ 77.650667, 76.594727, 73.638647, 71.903073 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 83.980003, "volume": 22489, "typical_volume": 18343.4, "trend": 70.88828, "fair_value": 40.486075, "relative_strength": 18.945012, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.479398, "energy": 86.647523, "activity_lines": [ 80.004668, 78.169091, 74.876513, 72.780663 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }