{ "ticker": { "uuid": "12d192d4-c071-4297-ac97-992438672334", "symbol": "PSLV", "name": "Sprott Physical Silver Trust", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.839, "architecture_energy": 46.083, "architecture_maturity": 44.339, "architecture_confidence": 88.973, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.5, "rotation_up": 25.16, "upward_expansion": 6.94, "deceleration": 57.84, "rotation_down": 48.1, "downward_expansion": 77.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.380667, 19.420727, 20.972476, 22.134538 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 20.82, "trend_reference": 23.877333, "distance_from_trend": -0.128043, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.600192, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.530861, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.298219, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.164526, "excess_performance": -0.290151, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.128043, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012245, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.530861, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.559251, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.122982, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.361477, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.164526, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.614131, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 46304986, "relative_activity": 1.092208, "balance": 0.614131, "dry_up": 0.935604, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.103949, "annualized_volatility": 0.521979, "from_high_reference": -0.453909, "from_low_reference": 0.651071 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.877333, "fair_value_reference": 13.600192, "structural_low": 17.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.020189, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.001014, "regime_survival": 0.722222, "best_return": 0.141975, "worst_return": -0.10093, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.052569, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.018617, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.2523, "worst_return": -0.162019, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.013819, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.013108, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.260218, "worst_return": -0.121175, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.130277, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.064909, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.045198, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.065714, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.040486, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": 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"typical_volume": 45216341.75, "trend": 24.246, "fair_value": 13.447885, "relative_strength": -16.858325, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.208998, "energy": 71.703687, "activity_lines": [ 18.723333, 19.626909, 21.465714, 22.695247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.8, "volume": 38257701, "typical_volume": 44252982.3, "trend": 24.065, "fair_value": 13.516731, "relative_strength": -17.701961, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.233171, "energy": 60.867694, "activity_lines": [ 18.718, 19.290727, 21.105524, 22.343892 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.82, "volume": 46304986, "typical_volume": 42395742.2, "trend": 23.877333, "fair_value": 13.600192, "relative_strength": -12.298219, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.839102, "energy": 46.082914, "activity_lines": [ 19.380667, 19.420727, 20.972476, 22.134538 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }