{ "ticker": { "uuid": "12d43df8-a946-496b-a35b-1f972a9b0b84", "symbol": "2431", "name": "Lien Chang Electronic Enterprise Co., Ltd", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.761, "architecture_energy": 53.029, "architecture_maturity": 40.785, "architecture_confidence": 84.533, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.22, "rotation_up": 13.72, "upward_expansion": 9.64, "deceleration": 41.76, "rotation_down": 65.51, "downward_expansion": 85.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.32, 10.584545, 10.75881, 11.099355 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 10.3, "trend_reference": 11.905, "distance_from_trend": -0.134817, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.516667, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.177097, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -38.631386, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.322368, "excess_performance": -0.668101, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.134817, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02231, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.177097, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023763, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.386314, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035513, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.322368, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.550293, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 847143, "relative_activity": 0.397642, "balance": 1.550293, "dry_up": 0.497841, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.088125, "annualized_volatility": 0.427104, "from_high_reference": -0.416431, "from_low_reference": 0.067358 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.905, "fair_value_reference": 12.516667, "structural_low": 9.65, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.046083, "positive_rate": 0.789474, "directional_follow_through": 0.210526, "median_excess_return": 0.015772, "regime_survival": 0.684211, "best_return": 0.197044, "worst_return": -0.088889, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.091272, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.042649, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.259091, "worst_return": -0.041475, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.129032, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.059483, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.214612, "worst_return": 0.006081, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Rotation Up", "color": "violet", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.023256, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.081712, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.045833, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.034783, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021645, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.143836, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.127413, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.06087, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-08-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.004878, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 10.6, "volume": 448239, "typical_volume": 2476666.8, "trend": 10.974005, "fair_value": 10.990245, "relative_strength": -8.030808, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.720047, 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-37.245323, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.622289, "energy": 24.174717, "activity_lines": [ 11.01, 11.091818, 11.070714, 11.557957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.05, "volume": 1519004, "typical_volume": 2439685.8, "trend": 12.068333, "fair_value": 12.53141, "relative_strength": -39.683627, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.071297, "energy": 48.929735, "activity_lines": [ 10.643333, 10.912727, 10.954524, 11.424516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.5, "volume": 650420, "typical_volume": 2234046.45, "trend": 12.036667, "fair_value": 12.524679, "relative_strength": -37.707604, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.007238, "energy": 53.926281, "activity_lines": [ 10.49, 10.826364, 10.892857, 11.323333 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 10.25, "volume": 1225873, "typical_volume": 2177022.9, "trend": 11.985, "fair_value": 12.51859, "relative_strength": -40.497991, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.82238, "energy": 57.055466, "activity_lines": [ 10.356667, 10.693636, 10.819048, 11.208065 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 10.3, "volume": 847143, "typical_volume": 2130418.15, "trend": 11.905, "fair_value": 12.516667, "relative_strength": -38.631386, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.760576, "energy": 53.029368, "activity_lines": [ 10.32, 10.584545, 10.75881, 11.099355 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }