{ "ticker": { "uuid": "12df1f0b-1f3f-4197-8444-a8fc2d9bbd51", "symbol": "WALM34", "name": "Walmart Inc.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 81.549, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.796, "architecture_energy": 44.536, "architecture_maturity": 18.772, "architecture_confidence": 84.877, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.58, "rotation_up": 17.36, "upward_expansion": 6.06, "deceleration": 48.57, "rotation_down": 58.42, "downward_expansion": 79.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.534, 36.054727, 37.218649, 38.046847 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 35.66, "trend_reference": 38.957776, "distance_from_trend": -0.08465, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 29.361141, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.21453, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.259082, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.15504, "excess_performance": -0.097991, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.08465, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004794, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.21453, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.245521, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.082591, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017736, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.15504, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.292878, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 83083, "relative_activity": 0.757103, "balance": 1.292878, "dry_up": 1.476329, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.066461, "annualized_volatility": 0.270138, "from_high_reference": -0.187117, "from_low_reference": 0.107593 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.957776, "fair_value_reference": 29.361141, "structural_low": 33.950001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.029604, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.063968, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.143421, "worst_return": -0.033665, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.041871, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.094761, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.09795, "worst_return": -0.120804, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.047539, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.14179, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.129764, "worst_return": -0.034687, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-01-05", "end": "2024-01-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020083, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-02-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.057314, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.905718, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010251, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.10418, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.071503, "active": false }, { 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 36.709999, "volume": 129404, "typical_volume": 106692.5, "trend": 39.268844, "fair_value": 28.987135, "relative_strength": -7.494457, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.38265, "energy": 58.31347, "activity_lines": [ 36.578, 37.135455, 38.228833, 38.814752 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 34.57, "volume": 187331, "typical_volume": 108662.6, "trend": 39.120777, "fair_value": 29.110255, "relative_strength": -12.652989, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.08129, "energy": 68.399512, "activity_lines": [ 35.834, 36.565091, 37.806181, 38.511601 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 35.3, "volume": 248220, "typical_volume": 109769.35, "trend": 39.042917, "fair_value": 29.236135, "relative_strength": -12.369451, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.018654, "energy": 57.859442, "activity_lines": [ 35.564, 36.252909, 37.479952, 38.265099 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 35.66, "volume": 83083, "typical_volume": 109738.1, "trend": 38.957776, "fair_value": 29.361141, "relative_strength": -8.259082, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.795878, "energy": 44.535701, "activity_lines": [ 35.534, 36.054727, 37.218649, 38.046847 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }