{ "ticker": { "uuid": "12dfe565-0fa7-455e-a90c-c62886dcc768", "symbol": "CHCI", "name": "Comstock Holding Companies Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 8.098, "architecture_energy": 17.382, "architecture_maturity": 32.855, "architecture_confidence": 59.439, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.55, "rotation_up": 23.87, "upward_expansion": 45.13, "deceleration": 70.15, "rotation_down": 31.46, "downward_expansion": 34.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.840667, 15.149455, 15.589905, 15.458151 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 14.95, "trend_reference": 14.758, "distance_from_trend": 0.01301, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.730556, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.536397, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.349017, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.316021, "excess_performance": 0.128567, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.01301, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052014, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.536397, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.400952, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.10349, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.161017, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.316021, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.296123, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 86384, "relative_activity": 0.712735, "balance": 1.296123, "dry_up": 1.120858, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.117494, "annualized_volatility": 0.579755, "from_high_reference": -0.241763, "from_low_reference": 0.474359 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.758, "fair_value_reference": 9.730556, "structural_low": 11.09, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.009384, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.015217, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.332698, "worst_return": -0.171502, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.05814, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.00612, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.710579, "worst_return": -0.22813, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.001105, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.008794, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.779443, "worst_return": -0.22813, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.111148, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010978, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.401, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.015306, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.134799, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021082, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"2026-07-17", "close": 15.75, "volume": 106563, "typical_volume": 123536.95, "trend": 14.462, "fair_value": 9.538889, "relative_strength": -2.226266, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.15702, "energy": 14.085582, "activity_lines": [ 15.661333, 15.633091, 16.010333, 15.448323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.82, "volume": 188098, "typical_volume": 127746.35, "trend": 14.592333, "fair_value": 9.602543, "relative_strength": -6.50257, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.340063, "energy": 4.805706, "activity_lines": [ 15.415333, 15.485091, 15.902952, 15.471419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.1, "volume": 162350, "typical_volume": 132791.3, "trend": 14.663333, "fair_value": 9.663056, "relative_strength": -11.37911, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -2.067341, "energy": 12.574487, "activity_lines": [ 14.941333, 15.233091, 15.711429, 15.439656 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.95, "volume": 86384, "typical_volume": 121200.7, "trend": 14.758, "fair_value": 9.730556, "relative_strength": -10.349017, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.097641, "energy": 17.381631, "activity_lines": [ 14.840667, 15.149455, 15.589905, 15.458151 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }