{ "ticker": { "uuid": "12e210b5-f877-46f4-9cdd-4d98572336ec", "symbol": "2120", "name": "Saudi Advanced Industries Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 84.185, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.075, "architecture_energy": 52.826, "architecture_maturity": 30.261, "architecture_confidence": 76.22, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.64, "rotation_up": 9.89, "upward_expansion": 19.75, "deceleration": 41.86, "rotation_down": 66.6, "downward_expansion": 78.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.796667, 16.158, 16.410095, 16.378409 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 15.95, "trend_reference": 16.414, "distance_from_trend": -0.028269, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 27.417209, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.418249, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.980167, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.051724, "excess_performance": -0.019895, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.028269, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042283, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.418249, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009022, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.129802, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.096305, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.051724, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.828891, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 724864, "relative_activity": 0.605589, "balance": 0.828891, "dry_up": 0.796267, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055317, "annualized_volatility": 0.266432, "from_high_reference": -0.388889, "from_low_reference": 0.181481 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.414, "fair_value_reference": 27.417209, "structural_low": 13.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.008757, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.043342, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.087891, "worst_return": -0.137662, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.0181, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.025784, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.34331, "worst_return": -0.257821, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.121213, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.010624, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.653055, "worst_return": -0.271884, "sufficient": false }, 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"label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-11-03", "end": "2023-11-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.001848, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-11-24", "end": "2023-12-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.047882, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-22", "end": "2024-01-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.040493, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-01-12", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.045531, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.364501, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.09817, 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"relative_strength": -11.9306, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -3.128089, "energy": 5.380092, "activity_lines": [ 16.638, 16.726909, 16.661952, 16.555936 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.68, "volume": 665416, "typical_volume": 1212981.65, "trend": 16.524333, "fair_value": 27.597274, "relative_strength": -15.843096, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.00323, "energy": 25.720222, "activity_lines": [ 16.309334, 16.527637, 16.586619, 16.497936 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.17, "volume": 557076, "typical_volume": 1169519.75, "trend": 16.448333, "fair_value": 27.500967, "relative_strength": -16.103617, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -46.851197, "energy": 50.125254, "activity_lines": [ 15.888667, 16.257637, 16.460667, 16.410559 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.95, "volume": 724864, "typical_volume": 1196957.65, "trend": 16.414, "fair_value": 27.417209, "relative_strength": -12.980167, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.075449, "energy": 52.825685, "activity_lines": [ 15.796667, 16.158, 16.410095, 16.378409 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }