{ "ticker": { "uuid": "12e2472e-4b40-4b3a-8390-aba0fae7779d", "symbol": "S100", "name": "Invesco FTSE 100 UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 87.011, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 80.308, "architecture_energy": 83.83, "architecture_maturity": 36.319, "architecture_confidence": 72.588, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.22, "rotation_up": 79.86, "upward_expansion": 94.42, "deceleration": 42.03, "rotation_down": 9.77, "downward_expansion": 18.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 11932.866667, 11807.018182, 11655.785714, 11564.924731 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 12071.0, "trend_reference": 11452.733333, "distance_from_trend": 0.053984, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9312.667631, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.296191, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.514481, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.070409, "excess_performance": 0.019173, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.053984, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032863, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.296191, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043442, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.015145, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000631, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.070409, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.235606, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7873, "relative_activity": 0.781238, "balance": 1.235606, "dry_up": 0.894881, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018026, "annualized_volatility": 0.150471, "from_high_reference": -0.00552, "from_low_reference": 0.232867 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11452.733333, "fair_value_reference": 9312.667631, "structural_low": 10582.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 44, "median_return": 0.011239, "positive_rate": 0.659091, "directional_follow_through": 0.659091, "median_excess_return": 0.002777, "regime_survival": 0.795455, "best_return": 0.072395, "worst_return": -0.082303, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.029875, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.010608, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.125459, "worst_return": -0.051636, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.07069, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.019664, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.155871, "worst_return": -0.020597, 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11593.890909, 11503.466667, 11447.748387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11864.0, "volume": 8925, "typical_volume": 11038.1, "trend": 11377.033333, "fair_value": 9255.283015, "relative_strength": 1.422673, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.832488, "energy": 69.003272, "activity_lines": [ 11738.666667, 11654.018182, 11546.309524, 11481.63871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12014.0, "volume": 13579, "typical_volume": 10754.9, "trend": 11417.033333, "fair_value": 9283.738144, "relative_strength": 1.400151, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.329381, "energy": 72.860223, "activity_lines": [ 11839.666667, 11729.581818, 11600.252381, 11522.733333 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12071.0, "volume": 7873, "typical_volume": 10077.6, "trend": 11452.733333, "fair_value": 9312.667631, "relative_strength": 1.514481, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.308057, "energy": 83.830138, "activity_lines": [ 11932.866667, 11807.018182, 11655.785714, 11564.924731 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }