{ "ticker": { "uuid": "12edd48f-0cd7-4cb7-8115-ce90bfe1525d", "symbol": "UC63", "name": "UBS MSCI United Kingdom UCITS ETF GBP dis", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 89.487, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.688, "architecture_energy": 90.653, "architecture_maturity": 36.28, "architecture_confidence": 73.019, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.91, "rotation_up": 83.22, "upward_expansion": 96.59, "deceleration": 41.88, "rotation_down": 8.73, "downward_expansion": 20.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 2780.95, 2749.845455, 2714.742857, 2694.945823 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 2815.25, "trend_reference": 2672.290861, "distance_from_trend": 0.053497, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2242.595872, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.255353, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.071848, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.062889, "excess_performance": 0.011654, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.053497, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028775, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.255353, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05374, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.010718, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008278, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.062889, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.191738, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 25436, "relative_activity": 3.94733, "balance": 3.191738, "dry_up": 2.426965, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015038, "annualized_volatility": 0.14435, "from_high_reference": -0.003319, "from_low_reference": 0.218344 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2672.290861, "fair_value_reference": 2242.595872, "structural_low": 2468.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 0.007356, "positive_rate": 0.588235, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": 0.000757, "regime_survival": 0.705882, "best_return": 0.051471, "worst_return": -0.067459, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.017823, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": 0.005428, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.069472, "worst_return": -0.026587, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.053534, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.010786, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.150863, "worst_return": -0.011748, "sufficient": true }, { 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"date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2801.25, "volume": 25930, "typical_volume": 7996.6, "trend": 2664.880339, "fair_value": 2236.677568, "relative_strength": 0.914283, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.729066, "energy": 80.906103, "activity_lines": [ 2757.5, 2730.954545, 2701.47619, 2685.244555 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2815.25, "volume": 25436, "typical_volume": 6443.85, "trend": 2672.290861, "fair_value": 2242.595872, "relative_strength": 1.071848, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.687975, "energy": 90.652875, "activity_lines": [ 2780.95, 2749.845455, 2714.742857, 2694.945823 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }