{ "ticker": { "uuid": "12f524fe-de24-4e48-94a8-fb993103ef8e", "symbol": "BWG", "name": "Better World Green Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 78.74, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.782, "architecture_energy": 52.457, "architecture_maturity": 11.779, "architecture_confidence": 85.615, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.48, "rotation_up": 14.22, "upward_expansion": 8.97, "deceleration": 44.14, "rotation_down": 65.66, "downward_expansion": 84.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.254667, 0.261455, 0.275698, 0.281989 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.25, "trend_reference": 0.284817, "distance_from_trend": -0.122242, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.369522, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.323451, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.596444, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.025641, "excess_performance": -0.166684, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.122242, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006834, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.323451, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031211, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.205964, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.177809, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.025641, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.994049, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 253714300, "relative_activity": 1.629079, "balance": 0.994049, "dry_up": 0.893029, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.103692, "annualized_volatility": 0.585309, "from_high_reference": -0.342538, "from_low_reference": 0.424501 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.284817, "fair_value_reference": 0.369522, "structural_low": 0.23, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.007576, "positive_rate": 0.40625, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.009676, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.356164, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.08125, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.064369, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.544118, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.068958, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.03188, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.617647, "worst_return": -0.444444, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"orange", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.159091, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.361111, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.074074, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.153846, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.064516, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.222222, "active": 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"relative_strength": -18.815416, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.515215, "energy": 57.40923, "activity_lines": [ 0.261333, 0.272909, 0.283133, 0.286609 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.25, "volume": 38677200, "typical_volume": 159780025.0, "trend": 0.285583, "fair_value": 0.371795, "relative_strength": -21.070306, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.757881, "energy": 66.079297, "activity_lines": [ 0.257333, 0.266545, 0.279175, 0.284284 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.25, "volume": 253714300, "typical_volume": 155740960.0, "trend": 0.284817, "fair_value": 0.369522, "relative_strength": -20.596444, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.781633, "energy": 52.457158, "activity_lines": [ 0.254667, 0.261455, 0.275698, 0.281989 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }