{ "ticker": { "uuid": "12fa298c-004a-4189-9f62-299bc8314d7c", "symbol": "L1M", "name": "Lightning Minerals Ltd", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -77.262, "architecture_energy": 74.483, "architecture_maturity": 92.0, "architecture_confidence": 84.211, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.85, "rotation_up": 11.99, "upward_expansion": 15.33, "deceleration": 39.74, "rotation_down": 78.29, "downward_expansion": 93.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.013267, 0.014418, 0.016648, 0.017688 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.012, "trend_reference": 0.019483, "distance_from_trend": -0.384089, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.065923, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.81797, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -59.093023, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.454545, "excess_performance": -0.518251, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.384089, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.210135, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.81797, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.096643, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.59093, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.196982, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.454545, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.085192, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13211330, "relative_activity": 5.185709, "balance": 0.085192, "dry_up": 2.369655, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.230769, "annualized_volatility": 0.718568, "from_high_reference": -0.806452, "from_low_reference": 0.090909 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.019483, "fair_value_reference": 0.065923, "structural_low": 0.011, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.025, "positive_rate": 0.380952, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.031858, "regime_survival": 0.904762, "best_return": 0.27907, "worst_return": -0.32, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.116585, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.127389, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.157895, "worst_return": -0.40625, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.24, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.2389, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.137931, "worst_return": -0.3125, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"trend": 0.021417, "fair_value": 0.07125, "relative_strength": -47.667181, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.087205, "energy": 71.946348, "activity_lines": [ 0.0166, 0.018245, 0.019021, 0.019932 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.015, "volume": 3097028, "typical_volume": 1914495.65, "trend": 0.02105, "fair_value": 0.070256, "relative_strength": -49.899437, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.047568, "energy": 74.750133, "activity_lines": [ 0.0159, 0.017436, 0.01859, 0.019518 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.015, "volume": 2090877, "typical_volume": 1863290.15, "trend": 0.020783, "fair_value": 0.069135, "relative_strength": -49.037808, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.353181, "energy": 73.550099, "activity_lines": [ 0.015467, 0.016773, 0.018188, 0.019128 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.014, "volume": 4354392, "typical_volume": 2005492.95, "trend": 0.020483, "fair_value": 0.068038, "relative_strength": -51.395061, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.872349, "energy": 71.155145, "activity_lines": [ 0.014867, 0.016055, 0.017738, 0.01869 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.013, "volume": 4491535, "typical_volume": 1988841.8, "trend": 0.02005, "fair_value": 0.066904, "relative_strength": -55.09169, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.622714, "energy": 71.565206, "activity_lines": [ 0.014133, 0.015245, 0.017226, 0.018208 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.012, "volume": 13211330, "typical_volume": 2547642.15, "trend": 0.019483, "fair_value": 0.065923, "relative_strength": -59.093023, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.261671, "energy": 74.483293, "activity_lines": [ 0.013267, 0.014418, 0.016648, 0.017688 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }