{ "ticker": { "uuid": "12fad261-31fa-4b67-bdee-d828ea6385a9", "symbol": "SKIL", "name": "SKIL Infrastructure Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -40.71, "architecture_energy": 27.826, "architecture_maturity": 90.858, "architecture_confidence": 62.577, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.35, "rotation_up": 24.94, "upward_expansion": 14.63, "deceleration": 66.56, "rotation_down": 35.52, "downward_expansion": 62.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.932, 0.926182, 0.941238, 0.96286 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.94, "trend_reference": 1.018667, "distance_from_trend": -0.077225, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.844167, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.755474, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -19.711174, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.265625, "excess_performance": -0.221916, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.077225, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082833, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.755474, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008148, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.197112, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.183516, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.265625, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.373091, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 32482, "relative_activity": 0.274926, "balance": 1.373091, "dry_up": 0.500393, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051555, "annualized_volatility": 0.271315, "from_high_reference": -0.541463, "from_low_reference": 0.119048 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.018667, "fair_value_reference": 3.844167, "structural_low": 0.84, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.019043, "positive_rate": 0.40625, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.016383, "regime_survival": 0.84375, "best_return": 0.204659, "worst_return": -0.193548, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.094374, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.064934, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.272727, "worst_return": -0.425926, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.137931, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.09847, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.396226, "worst_return": -0.590106, "sufficient": true }, { 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-10-20", "end": "2024-03-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.696629, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.180556, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.081967, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.225926, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041727, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-09-06", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.13908, "energy": 77.36061, "activity_lines": [ 0.901333, 0.928545, 0.944238, 0.981419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.92, "volume": 15752, "typical_volume": 130593.4, "trend": 1.036, "fair_value": 3.882949, "relative_strength": -21.522152, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.693297, "energy": 59.944151, "activity_lines": [ 0.904, 0.922909, 0.940762, 0.973355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.96, "volume": 81485, "typical_volume": 121338.25, "trend": 1.026667, "fair_value": 3.864103, "relative_strength": -18.757305, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.389381, "energy": 37.775664, "activity_lines": [ 0.922667, 0.926, 0.94181, 0.968452 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.94, "volume": 32482, "typical_volume": 118148.05, "trend": 1.018667, "fair_value": 3.844167, "relative_strength": -19.711174, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.709941, "energy": 27.826069, "activity_lines": [ 0.932, 0.926182, 0.941238, 0.96286 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }